Weekly Briefing, Vol. 43, No. 1 (HU), September 2021
Preparing for elections
In every country, political discourse becomes more hectic and agitated as parliamentary elections approach. This is now the case in Hungary as well. Moreover, we can add that autumn is particularly suitable for increased political discussion and voter mobilization, as the eligible voters are now back from their holidays. The main debate around the elections this time is about whether the Fidesz-KDNP will be able to form a government for the fourth time in a row. If the party is successful in the elections, it will be able to continue the reform of the Hungarian society and economy. Between 2002 and 2010, the gap between the EU and Hungary in terms of GDP per capita (measured in current prices) widened significantly, a trend that slowly reversed after 2011. The most important question that will be answered by the elections is whether or not this trend can continue.
Introduction
The results of the Hungarian vaccination program, the announced program of tax rebates per child and the national consultation on child protection have been the main topics in Hungarian politics over the last two months. Based on the collected polling data, one can clearly see that the main issues in the Hungarian political landscape were dominated by the ruling party, which managed to gain more supporters than the opposition camp during this period. The opposition had more supporters in August than in July or June. The gap between Fidesz-KDNP and the opposition parties is slowly closing, but the difference between the two camps is still considerable.
Survey results
| Table Political support among political parties between June and August 2021 | ||||
| Fidesz-KDNP | Opposition camp | Others | Does not know, will not reveal party sympathies | |
| Among likely voters (percent) | ||||
| June 2021 | 52 | 43 | 5 | – |
| July 2021 | 51 | 47 | 2 | – |
| August 2021 | 52 | 46 | 2 | – |
| Among eligible voters (percent) | ||||
| June 2021 | 40 | 36 | 2 | 22 |
| July 2021 | 41 | 40 | 2 | 17 |
| August 2021 | 45 | 42 | 2 | 11 |
|
Source: Nézőpont Research Institute, A Fidesz nyerte meg az augusztust. 01.09.2021, https://nezopont.hu/a-fidesz-nyerte-meg-az-augusztust/ |
||||
The Nézőpont Research Institute conducted an opinion poll on support for political parties in August 2021. The poll was conducted between 23 and 25 August and involved the interviewing of 1,000 people. According to the poll, the ruling party’s political support among eligible voters increased by 5 percentage points between June and August, while the opposition camp gained 6 percentage points among eligible voters in the same period. Still, the Fidesz-KDNP leads by 3 percentage points. The key difference between June and August is the decline in voters who are unsure of their decision or do not want to reveal their party sympathies. The outcome of the Hungarian elections is usually decided by these voters. Therefore, it is crucial how many voters the parties can win over in the time period before the elections.
Looking at the sympathy scores among likely voters, the Fidesz-KDNP’s lead stagnated between June and August 2021, as the ruling party’s support among likely voters remained the same (52 percent), while the opposition camp’s support increased by 3 percentage points. At the same time, we should add that the difference between the opposition and the Fidesz-KDNP in this group of voters is still significant, and this figure is the most telling about the final outcome of the elections.
In order to take the initiative and influence public opinion, the ruling party has launched the ‘Stop Gyurcsány, Stop Karácsony’ campaign. The political petition has already been signed by 200,000 people. The petition can be signed until October 23, the 15th anniversary of the public protest in Budapest (2016) that erupted after the release of a secretly recorded speech by the former Prime Minister. The public protest was violently put down by the police at the time, and the purpose of the petition is clearly to remind people of this rather bloody event and impede the win of the same political forces again.
Pre-elections
As we mentioned in our last briefing, opposition parties are holding primaries to choose a prime ministerial candidate for the opposition and other candidates for members of parliament. To run for prime minister, candidates had to collect at least 20,000 endorsements. Five politicians from the opposition camp were successful at this stage: Gergely Karácsony (MSZP-Párbeszéd-LMP), Klára Dobrev (DK), Péter Jakab (Jobbik), András Fekete-Győr (Momentum) and Péter Márky-Zay (Mindenki Magyarország Mozgalma). Although the collection of recommendations is not only the achievement of the primaries themselves, the speed of the process reveals a lot about the prime ministerial candidates’ chances. According to the report, Karácsony, Dobrev and Jakab have the best chances of advancing to the second round of the primaries. Karácsony was the first candidate to announce his success in collecting recommendations, but Dobrev effortlessly collected 80,000 recommendations, which shows the robustness of the party organization. Karácsony was unable to mobilize and win supporters in the countryside, while Jakab faces an opposite challenge, his support in the capital is weak.
The candidates for prime minister took part in a televised debate on September 12, 2021. This kind of political competition and discussion between politicians of the same camp is not typical in Hungary. Analogies can be found in the United States, where candidates participate in a discussion that is not free of heated debate and even personal attacks. However, that was not the case this time. As one of the observers said, the discussion was more like a beauty contest than a political discussion. Open conflict was avoided and so the discussion did not really serve to orient potential opposition voters. Rather, it confirmed the widespread assumption that the most important decisions are already being made behind the scenes.
One of the political analysts referred to the candidates like actors in a movie:
- Jakab, the simple, honest and strong son of the people,
- Dobrev, the professional, experienced politician,
- Karácsony, the common nominator,
- Fekete-Győr, the young boy.[1]
The reason why the participants in the debate are so easily categorized is obviously because they are trying to position themselves vis-à-vis the others. But the strategy, which seems logical in the short term, may be fatal for the opposition camp in the long term, for the main question is whether this discussion will help to increase the chances of the opposition camp. The opposition seems to be disadvantaged by the absence of a charismatic leader. In our opinion, this debate has not served that purpose well as the candidates have not been confrontational and it was not clear why the voter should vote for him or her again or switch sides and support the opposition this time.
If there is one slogan or plan that was reflected in the speeches and comments of the prime ministerial candidates, accountability of the Fidesz-KDNP government was the recurring theme, however, it was not clear how this goal would be achieved. Other elements, such as closing rich people’s bank accounts (Karácsony) or withdrawing the education law under discussion (Fekete-Győr), came very close to demagoguery.
One of the Hungarian news portals launched a non-representative poll on the outcome of this debate, although more than 10,000 online votes were cast. Unlike previous polls, Fekete-Győr was the most impressive candidate in the debate with 4,027 votes, according to the Internet poll, while Dobrev, the candidate with the greatest potential to win the primaries, had the lowest number of votes (1,024 votes). According to the schedule, two more rounds of primary debates will be held in September and October. The first round of voting will be held between September 18 and 26, 2021, while the second round will be organized between October 4 and 10, 2021, but only the three most successful candidates in the first round will participate in the second round.
Summary
From the briefing we could clearly see that the Fidesz-KDNP has a clear but narrow lead over the opposition camp, but the ‘hold the course’ attitude will not be enough in the coming months as new issues and measures are needed in order to shape the political discourse in Hungary. This is the main reason why the ‘Stop Gyurcsány, Stop Karácsony’ campaign was launched by the Fidesz-KDNP or why the national consultation about the child education and protection was launched a few weeks ago.
A similar attempt to define the themes of the net parliamentary elections is the primary election of the opposition camp. The primaries have clearly shown that new elements, solutions that are capable of attracting the attention of the media and the public, although in this case one can really wonder to what extent the electorate is offered any real help in forming political opinions if the debates are not provocative enough and compromises are made behind the scenes.
[1] Török (2021). Ez a vita csak ellenzéki szépségverseny volt. Retrieved from: https://index.hu/velemeny/2021/09/13/csak-ellenzeki-szepsegverseny-volt-a-miniszterelnok-jelolti-vita/