Weekly Briefing, Vol. 30, No. 4 (BG), June 2020
Outlook for the Bulgarian International Relations in 2020 year after the Outbreak of the Covid-19 Pandemic
The global coronavirus pandemic has led to major changes in international relations and the global geopolitical balance. Global international order – from trade to security – has been challenged. The world is facing an equation with many unknowns. The American global leadership has faded. Relations between the two global giants, the United States and China, are entering a new, even more tense phase. In this situation, the United States is launching a massive campaign against the PRC. A large-scale psychological war is unfolding in order to transfer the negatives of the current crisis to China. Accusations that China is fully responsible for the pandemic are heard at the highest level on a daily basis. In this situation Europe is looking hard for its place in the new geopolitical configuration. The political distance with the United States is widening, and to some extent with China. The EC is investing in the future through an unprecedented expression of European solidarity. But unfortunately Europe is becoming a kind of a hostage in the confrontation between the United States and China.
Where is Bulgaria in this increasingly complicated international situation?
Actually Bulgarian main foreign policy priorities didn’t change that much and basically remain the same. In essence, they are mainly related to the country’s membership in the European Union and NATO. This leads to priority foreign policy relations mainly with the United States and the leading Western European countries in the EU, among which Germany ranks first in Bulgarian foreign policy.
On the first place crucial role in Bulgarian foreign policy plays United States. Its geopolitical interest in the region in which Bulgaria is located has both economic and military-political and strategic dimensions. US interests in the region are clearly linked to two main strategic goals against Russia on the one hand and the PRC on the other. From this point of view, Bulgaria is a key country that is definitely part of the US strategic plans. One of the tools that America uses to influence Bulgaria is the country’s membership in NATO and the partnership obligations that the country has in relation to this membership. It seems that Bulgaria will continue to be one of the most important US military and political allies in Southeast Europe and the Black Sea region. Particularly very indicative to the more serious military ties between the two countries were the deal for modernization of the Bulgarian army by purchasing F16 aircraft from the USA. Two weeks ago, the first Bulgarian pilots who will fly the newly purchased planes went to specialize in the United States, and according to the agreement signed between the governments of Bulgaria and the United States, the training of 65 engineering and technical staff is also envisaged.
At the same time, the United States is putting pressure on the Bulgarian government to engage the country in regional initiatives that have both economic and political functions. The most significant example of this is the so called “Three Seas Initiative”. Bulgaria and the United States have wide range cooperation in the field of liquefied natural gas. According to Bulgarian Minister of Energetics Temenushka Petkova, 50% of the country’s natural gas consumption will be diversified by the end of this year. In June last year, Bulgaria received its first supplies of American liquefied natural gas. Last year, the supply of liquefied natural gas to Bulgaria from USA amounted nearly half a billion cubic meters. Bulgarian government is trying to develop the overall concept for the Balkan gas hub, which envisages connecting the natural gas markets of the member states in Central and Eastern Europe by building and developing the necessary gas transmission infrastructure. In this regard one of the key infrastructure projects for Bulgaria is the construction of an interconnection gas connector Greece-Bulgaria. Bulgarian government is highly committed that It is of strategic importance to preserve Bulgaria’s key role on the gas map of Europe. Speaking of the Three Seas initiative, Bulgaria has already invested more than BGN 1 billion, Prime Minister Boyko Borissov anounced.
In any case, the “Three sees” initiative is not simply a project for greater economic, infrastructural and energy connectivity in Eastern Europe, as the Bulgarian media innocently present it. This is, above all, Bulgarian inclusion in a frankly anti-Russian pact, the main purpose of which is to suffocate Moscow and create a sanitary cordon between it and Berlin.
The Initiative pursues several strategic and tactical goals. First, the creation of a large militarized space in Eastern Europe, which could create tensions on Russia’s borders and, if necessary, provide a large human resource for war against Russia. Second, the obstruction and failure of all Russian energy and economic projects by Russia with Germany, such as Balkan Stream and Nord Stream, which ultimately not only compete with US liquefied natural gas but also bring significant revenue to the Russian treasury, which can to be used for the Armed Forces of the Federation. Third, the diminishing influence of Western European powers such as France and Germany in Eastern Europe, after they showed a willingness to cooperate with Russia and did not in the least share American enthusiasm for confrontation with it, or even less with China. A number of facts can definitely be listed here, both about the economic ties between Berlin and Moscow, and about the Kremlin’s relations with the France. Fourth, creating disunity in the European Union and this has great economic, demographic and technological potential to compete with the United States.
One is clear and it is that Bulgaria and the United States are allies and strategic partners linked by a shared interest in ideology and economic opportunities. In this regard both countries hold discussions on a wide range of issues of importance for both countries, with a tendency to deepen further their relations, not only on a bilateral basis, but also within NATO and the EU-US.
Going back to the priorities of the Bulgarian foreign policy on the second place, Bulgaria’s foreign policy interests are undoubtedly related to European Union membership. Undoubtedly, we should note here that in 2020 the Bulgarian government aims at one of the most important political and foreign economic goals for the country, which will have a significant impact on the economic situation in Bulgaria. It is about joining the European Banking Union and the so-called Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM2). Bulgaria could join the so called “waiting room” to adopt the euro until the end of 2020, European Central Bank board member Fabio Panetta said in an interview for Le Monde. In this regard Bulgarian government takes bold measures to converge and if the process is completed successfully it could join ERM-2 by the end of the year.
Thirdly, an extremely important and priority foreign policy direction, which the Bulgarian government invariably pursues, is the policy of rapprochement with neighboring Balkan countries. The goal of Bulgarian government is to emerge as a strong regional factor for stability and Balkan solidarity and cooperation. From this point of view, undoubtedly in 2020 one of the most important foreign policy priorities of Bulgaria will be related to providing support for the process of accession of the Western Balkans to the European Union.
Lastly, in terms of foreign policy, the place and role of Russia in Bulgarian foreign policy should be noted. It must be said here that despite the strong pro-American foreign policy of the country, the Bulgarian government is trying to balance and not take extreme positions towards Russia as a factor in the region. This is necessary for at least two reasons. In the first place, the still quite strong pro-Russian attitude of a large part of the Bulgarian population. This is mainly due to the strong historical and cultural-traditional connection between the two peoples. Secondly, Bulgaria cannot ignore the country’s huge dependence on Russian energy supplies. Interesting here is the fact that despite Bulgaria’s allied relations with the United States and the participation of initiatives such as the “Three Seas”, the Bulgarian government is taking advantage of the opportunity to participate in the construction of another strategically important energy project. It is about the construction of the gas pipeline known as “Turkish Stream” which will carry Russian natural gas to southern Europe through Turkey, part of Moscow’s efforts to reduce shipments via Ukraine. The pipeline project, also known as “Turk Stream”, stretching 930 km across the Black Sea, reinforces strong energy ties between Moscow and Ankara, which have also increased defense cooperation after Turkey bought advanced Russian missile defenses last year. The Bulgarian government seems highly motivated to participate in the project, building up the part from the Bulgarian-Turkish border to Serbia. Bulgaria is calling the project “Balkan Stream”. The project is of colossal importance – its full launch will allow Russia to strengthen its energy presence in the region, open opportunities for diversification of supplies in the Balkans and allow the creation of additional transit capacity. According to a number of foreign policy experts, this is a risky foreign policy game for Bulgaria, which is trying to balance the political pressure of Russia and the United States in this apparently much larger geopolitical and geoeconomic race involving the Balkans and the Black Sea region.
Finally we must note the role of China in Bulgaria’s foreign policy. It seems that the Bulgarian government will continue to pursue a not very active, but rather cautious policy towards China within the framework of the “17 + 1” initiative and on the basis of the general framework of EU-China relations. This means rather passivity and cautious following of the most conservative guidelines coming from Western Europe towards China. How Bulgaria will behave also depends on how and to what extent the pressure from the USA will affect Europe. Indicative of this is one of the last statements of US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who called on Europe to choose: “Freedom or Chinese tyranny.”
However, a good indication for the future development of relations between Bulgaria and China is the formation of a joint team to establish a Bulgarian-Chinese innovation center in Sofia, discussed two weeks ago at a meeting with President Rumen Radev. Establishment of such center was agreed during the visit of Bulgarian head of state in the PRC and his meeting with President Xi Jinping last year. The official position of the Bulgarian President today is that raising the relations between Bulgaria and China at the level of strategic partnership has significant potential for development in the field of innovation, research and development and high technology.
In conclusion we have to say that the priority axis in Bulgarian foreign policy has been fundamentally unchanged for more than fifteen years and the global pandemic has not significantly changed the picture in terms of Bulgarian foreign policy priorities. The only difference is coming from the fact that some of the previously observed trends are likely to intensify at the expense of others, which will obviously slow down their dynamics. This is explained by the fact that traditionally Bulgarian foreign policy is highly dependent on the influence exerted on the Bulgarian government by countries with traditionally strong geopolitical interests in the region of Southeast Europe and the Black Sea.