Weekly Briefing, Vol. 71. No. 1 (PL) March 2024
Escalation of agricultural protests
Konrad Rajca
Summary
Agricultural protests are also underway across the country. Farmers are demanding a halt to imports from Ukraine and a departure from the EU’s Green Deal program. In early March, some 10,000 farmers came to Warsaw to protest. A group of protesters clashed with police in front of the Polish parliament. The farmers’ demonstrations are a field of political conflict between the government and the opposition and mutual accusations of escalating the situation. Farmers are an important electoral group in the context of the upcoming local elections in Poland.
Polish domestic politics is dominated by the actions of Donald Tusk’s government related to the implementation of changes in the Polish judiciary – undoing reforms introduced by the previous Law and Justice government. They concern the Constitutional Tribunal, which decides on the constitutionality of laws, the National Judicial Council, which influences judicial appointments, and the Supreme Court. The Sejm passed a special resolution on the Constitutional Court in mid-March and announced the preparation of relevant laws reforming the judicial system. However, in view of President Andrzej Duda’s announced veto, their adoption at the moment seems unlikely. Hence the government’s actions in the form of Sejm resolutions, which, however, do not have full legal force, but only indicate the direction of changes.
Introduction
14 police officers injured, 55 people arrested – these are the results of riots that took place in early March during a farmers’ protest outside the Sejm. Prime Minister Donald Tusk says of the aggressors that they are professional hooligans.[i] Both the government and the opposition, but also the organizers of the protests, say provocateurs were involved in the protest, which sparked the aggression. As a result of the incidents, 14 people have heard charges. Both farmers and police officers were injured. The farmers started the demonstration in front of the Prime Minister’s office, and it was here that flares were set off. It was also here that a coffin was burned to symbolize the collapse of Polish agriculture. However, the most heated was in front of the Sejm – there a cobblestone flew towards the police. The police responded with tear gas and bang grenades.
Agricultural demonstrations and political conflict
The events outside the Polish parliament have become a pretext for exacerbating the political conflict. The government accuses the opposition, represented by Law and Justice (PiS) and the Confederation, of exacerbating the mood among the protesters. The opposition, in turn, points to improper, provocative and overly violent police actions and the participation of provocateurs in the demonstration. During the farmers’ protests, opposition politicians were present on the scene, some of whom suffered from the police’s use of tear gas against participants.
The head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Administration Marcin Kierwinski commented on the police intervention shortly after the protest on a live feed from the Sejm plenary hall. – A bunch of provocateurs are throwing cobblestones at Polish policemen, and you are attacking Polish police,” he addressed Law and Justice politicians. – We also had to deal with a group of hooligans, provocateurs,” said Minister Kierwiński. The police also posted information about the actions taken at sensitive moments on social media. – Facades and windows were egged. Firecrackers and flares flew towards apartments,” enumerated Sub-Inspector Robert Szumiata of the Capital Police Headquarters. – This only proves the aggression of those who took part in the protest,” he added. The analysis of the recordings, those of the police and the media, is being carried out by officers.
There were Law and Justice politicians with an MP intervention in the Interior Ministry. – We didn’t learn anything, but we confirmed our belief that the protests were political, their provocations were political,” believes MP Piotr Kaleta of the Law and Justice Party. Organizers of the demonstrations from the agricultural unions and Solidarity also dissociate themselves from the hooligan acts, also stressing, the hooligan actions were inspired by provocateurs.
The prime minister did not want to comment on the riots, because, he argued, that is not the essence of this protest. – For me the important thing is the substance of the issue. One way or another, we will work to solve farmers’ problems regardless of who is protesting and how,” Donald Tusk pointed out. The Prime Minister holds regular meetings with representatives of farmers’ organizations to discuss their demands, but they do not bring a breakthrough. During one of the meetings, he announced that he had obliged the Agriculture Ministry to present an aid program to minimize Poland’s grain surplus. The issue is about 4-5 million tons of grain. The ministry will present specific solutions once the European Commission’s decisions on the Green Deal are known. [ii]. The Commission is reportedly set to withdraw from some of the Green Deal requirements. Donald Tusk said during meetings with farmers that he would not close the Polish border to Ukrainian products, and that Poland’s surplus grain would be drawn from domestic resources, Agriculture Minister Czeslaw Siekierski explained. However, the Polish Sejm passed a resolution calling on the European Commission to close the border to Belarusian and Russian food products. The initiative was supported by the European Parliament, but the Commission will most likely only agree to limit these imports.
Resolution on the Constitutional Court
The new Polish government continues to make changes to the judiciary. The Polish parliament passed a resolution in March on “removing the effects of the constitutional crisis of 2015-2023 in the context of the Constitutional Court’s activities,” with the Law and Justice Party and the Confederation opposed. During the discussion of another item in parliament, Julia Przyłębska, who was appointed under the Law and Justice (PiS) government as president of the Constitutional Tribunal (TK), spoke from the rostrum, but according to the document adopted a few minutes earlier, she is not the president of the TK. [iii] She spoke about the procedures involved in the appointment of judges. She also said that the Sejm should not review the activities of the Constitutional Court, as this violates the seperation of powers.
Prior to Przyłębska’s speech, Sejm Deputy Speaker Piotr Zgorzelski (Third Way), who was chairing the session, stressed that “in the resolution adopted today on removing the effects of the constitutional crisis of 2015-2023, the Sejm recognized that the function of the president of the Constitutional Court is held by an unauthorized person,” because her election was “flawed,” and, given that it was flawed, her lawful term of office also expired in 2022. – As a result, all procedural decisions in directing the work of the Constitutional Court, and in particular the appointment of the bench, were made by Ms. Julia Przyłębska can be challenged, he added. The Sejm’s resolution also notes that 3 judges are not judges of the Constitutional Court, including because of their faulty appointment. The resolution calls on the TK judges “to resign and thus join the process of democratic transition.”
After the Sejm passed the resolution, a broadcast of Julia Przyłębska’s speech appeared on the TK website, in which she again criticized the resolution passed by the Sejm, which she called a “violation of the law.” She stressed that she is the legally elected president of the Constitutional Court. She also criticized rulings by the European Court of Human Rights regarding the Polish judiciary as non-existent, because, she stressed, the European Union has no right to interfere in the judicial bodies of member states.
The work on the resolution had a tumultuous course. During the discussion, Law and Justice Chairman Jaroslaw Kaczynski appeared on the rostrum. – This resolution will have the same meaning as a resolution on, for example, changing the English king. Legally, it will have no meaning and its adoption is simply comedy, theater and something that insults this chamber,” he assessed.
Earlier, MP Kamila Gasiuk-Pihowicz (KO), said that “with this resolution we begin the process of repairing the Constitutional Court, a necessary, anticipated, discussed and wisely planned process.” As she stated, today the TK is associated with “a dummy, understudy judges, juries that are changed at the last minute, and verdicts whose content is known before they are passed.” – The TK has ceased to perform its primary role, that of examining the constitutionality of laws, she stressed. She pointed out that in 2015 the Constitutional Court published 63 judgments, meanwhile, in the following years, a dozen or so each year. – Duplicate judges have never been judges of the Constitutional Court. And this is what the resolution is talking about. (…) The resolution says that 85 judgments of the Constitutional Court are seriously legally flawed and will have to be removed from the legal order, because they were issued by understudies,” the KO deputy said.
– We appeal to public authorities and local governments of public trust to be guided by this resolution in their activities. We take the position that taking into account in the activities of a public authority the decisions of the Constitutional Court issued in violation of the law can be considered a violation of the principle of legalism by these authorities. (…) Now the legislature is taking charge of saving the law and the state. This resolution restores hope for a state under the rule of law, one that is reliable, honest and fair. It is the first step. There will be others – two laws and an amendment to the Constitution. We will restore the Constitutional Court to the Poles,” Gasiuk-Pihowicz noted.
Resolutions adopted by Parliament have no legal force. They only indicate the direction of planned changes. President Andrzej Duda announces a veto on the government’s proposals regarding changes in the courts.
Dispute in the government over abortion
A dispute over abortion has erupted inside the government coalition. Sejm Speaker Szymon Hołownia (Christian Democrat Poland 2050, Third Way) is being criticized by coalition partners the Left and the Civic Coalition for withholding consideration of bills legalizing abortion in Poland up to the 12th week of pregnancy without restrictions. The Third Way advocates a return to the state of the law before the Constitutional Court’s ruling in 2020 tightening the right to abortion and advocates a referendum on abortion. The Speaker of the Sejm postponed consideration of the bills until after the first round of local elections on April 11, arguing the decision was too emotional over the abortion issue and the unrealistic nature of the entry of changes to the law in view of President Andrzej Duda’s announced opposition to liberalizing the abortion law.
The right to abortion was restricted during the PiS government by a Constitutional Court ruling in 2020. The ruling eliminated one of the grounds for legal abortion in situations of fetal damage or defects. Until then, abortion had been banned in Poland since 1993, with the exception of pregnancies resulting from rape, situations where a woman’s life is in danger and precisely situations of fetal damage or defects. The Law and Justice Party’s tightening of abortion laws resulted in mass protests by women and affected the outcome of the 2023 parliamentary elections.
“We differ in our coalition on abortion; when talking about this issue, we need calmness and patience so that, while fighting for the good, we do not introduce more evil,” said Parliament Speaker Hołownia. He assessed that in the current political situation, there is a better chance of changing the abortion law through consent in a referendum than in the Sejm. He also explained that the current Sejm is much more conservative than Polish society, including being composed of 70 percent men. “You want real change, it may already be difficult in this Sejm – it will be much easier in Polish society. And that’s why we’re talking about a referendum.” – He pointed out. He added that in Poland 2050 everyone wants liberalization of the current abortion law, and the differences are about the extent of this liberalization. “We have to talk to each other. We can’t tear at each other, we can’t cover each other, we can’t show each other the middle finger.” – the Speaker appealed.
The head of the parliamentary club of the Left Anna Maria Zukowska commented on the words of Szymon Hołownia, who said that on the issue of abortion “calm is needed,” writing on the X portal: “Get out…aj with this peace”. – [iv]. The New Left MP’s words are a direct continuation of her speech in the Sejm . “For you, it is never a good time to address the issue of abortion. You have turned the parliamentary freezer into a smiling freezer.” – The MP said at the time, accusing the male part of parliament of endlessly postponing work on projects to liberalize the right to abortion. [v]
When asked about the issue of laws changing the abortion law, Donald Tusk claimed that he disagrees with Mr. Holownia and Kosiniak-Kamysz (Polish People’s Party, Third Way) on this issue, but stressed that they did not cheat on this issue. – They said in the campaign what their position was. I do not share the tone of resentment towards them,” the prime minister said. He assured that the KO is in favor of abortion up to the 12th week of pregnancy. [vi] – I had no illusions or any illusions about what position Speaker Holownia or President Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz has on this issue. I have a different opinion on this issue. We will negotiate, persuade. First of all, the Ministry of Health will and is already making decisions that will change the reality as much as possible under today’s laws,” the prime minister said.
Inflation and GDP growth forecasts
The National Bank of Poland (NBP) presented the latest forecasts for inflation and GDP dynamics in Poland. It presented two variants: with the continuation and discontinuation of the so-called inflation shields. The inflation shields mainly include a price freeze on energy, gas and heat for households (formally in effect until the end of June this year) and a zero VAT rate on food (until the end of March, the government has announced the abandonment of the zero rate). With the extension of the anti-inflation shields, inflation according to the National Bank of Poland is expected to be 3 percent in 2024, 3.4 percent in 2025 and 2.9 percent in 2026 . With the discontinuation of the shields, it is expected to average 5.7 percent in 2024. [vii]In 2025, it is expected to fall to 3.5 percent, and in 2026 to 2.7 percent. Inflation, however, is projected not to fall to the NBP’s point target, even though the projection is extended to 2026. This – along with uncertainty about the anti-inflation shields – may keep the NBP Monetary Board from cutting rates.
The authors of the report noted that the inflation forecasts are being pushed downward not only by the mere extension of the disinflation shields , but also by the weakening of cost pressures in the economy or the strengthening of the zloty, which reduces the prices of imported goods. They added that the direction of weakening disinflation will be influenced by stronger demand pressures in 2024-2025 than in the previous round, resulting both from the higher-than-expected scale of wage growth in the budget sphere than in the November projection, as well as the possible maintenance of at least part of the anti-inflationary shields, which will increase household disposable income.
GDP growth assuming the extension of the anti-inflation shields is expected to be 3.5 percent in 2024, 4.2 percent in 2025, and 3.3 percent in 2026. Without the extension of the shield measures, GDP growth, according to the NBP, would be slightly lower, amounting to about 3.2 percent in 2024, and 3.6 percent and 3.2 percent in 2025 and 2026, respectively. “The increase in the GDP forecast for 2024- 2025 is influenced by legislative changes introduced after the closing of the previous forecasting round. The larger-than-anticipated scale of salary increases for government employees in the November projection, raising nominal government consumption, is likely to translate in part into a higher level of this category in real terms. Indirectly, through an increase in household disposable income, these increases will also have a positive impact on the dynamics of private consumption.” – The report said.
“Household consumption will also be supported by increased social transfers: the new ‘Active Parent’ benefit and the shield allowance for rising energy prices. In the same direction, by increasing the purchasing power of consumers, the assumed maintenance of a freeze on electricity and natural gas prices over the entire projection horizon will have an impact.” – It added.
Conclusiuon
Events in Poland are dominated by agricultural protests. Farmers are demanding the blocking of exports of products from Ukraine and a halt to restrictions imposed by the EU’s Green Deal program. The government is largely in solidarity with the farmers’ demands and has announced support for agriculture, but decisions at the EU level are key in this area. The agricultural issue is crucial in view of the upcoming local and European Parliament elections, leading to a sharpening of the dispute in this area among the main political forces.
The ongoing conflicts in the context of changes in the Polish judiciary between the government and the opposition have also been joined by a dispute over abortion, which, however, divides the government coalition itself. According to forecasts by the National Bank of Poland, the level of inflation in Poland in 2024 will be between 3 and 5.7 percent, while economic growth will close in the range of 3-3.5 percent of GDP, depending on whether the government continues its shield shield program in the area of energy and food prices.
[i] The TV TVN24 Portal https://tvn24.pl/polska/warszawa-zamieszki-podczas-protestow-rolnikow-policja-analizuje-nagrania-st7810117
[ii] The economical Portal Money.pl https://www.money.pl/gospodarka/rozmowy-donalda-tuska-z-rolnikami-bez-przelomu-kolodziejczak-dostal-wazne-zadanie-7004754305653472a.html
[iii] The TV TVN24.pl Portal https://tvn24.pl/polska/trybunal-konstytucyjny-uchwala-w-sprawie-zmian-w-sejmie-debata-stanowiska-klubow-st7807796
[iv] The RMF FM Radio Portal https://www.rmf24.pl/polityka/news-spor-o-aborcje-zukowska-do-holowni-wyp-aj,nId,7380082#crp_state=1
[v] The economical Portal Bankier.pl https://www.bankier.pl/wiadomosc/Spor-o-aborcje-w-Sejmie-Zawsze-jest-dobry-czas-na-prawa-kobiet-8706249.html
[vi] Information porlat Onet.pl, https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/kraj/spor-o-aborcje-w-rzadzie-donald-tusk-nie-podzielam-tonu-pretensji-do-nich/es466dq
[vii] Portal ekonomiczny BusinessInsider.com.pl, https://businessinsider.com.pl/gospodarka/sa-nowe-prognozy-takiej-inflacji-i-wzrostu-gospodarczego-spodziewa-sie-nbp/hyb9601