Weekly Briefing, Vol. 69. No. 4 (BH) January 2024
Recent Developments, Policies, and Prospects of Your Country’s Relations with China
Faruk Borić
Summary
The People’s Republic of China and Bosnia and Herzegovina have no open political issues. The visa-free regime brings connections in the field of politics and people, through an increase in tourism cooperation. There are also numerous activities that aim to familiarize the wider public with China, especially through the “Belt and Road” Initiative. High-ranking officials from BiH visited China on various occasions, including the Third BRI Forum, from where they sent symbolically positive messages appealing for deepening cooperation. As for foreign trade, it is still significantly on the sidelines
However, the development of relations, especially in the context of the character and scope of business of large Chinese companies in BiH, must be viewed in the attempts to suppress and negatively represent that cooperation, which come from certain media that are financed with money from the West. Every project in which the Chinese side is somehow involved – as an investor or contractor – is under public scrutiny. Every issue related to a specific project is also tried to be presented as a general problem with “Chinese projects” and the “Belt and Road” Initiative. At least some of these activities in the background have personal economic reasons, more than concerns about the unfavorable position in which, allegedly, the strengthening of relations with China will find Bosnia and Herzegovina. Considering the transparency of the West when it comes to resources and projects in BiH, this trend could damage some of the projects in the coming years.
Introduction
In the capital of BiH, Sarajevo, large Chinese receptions are regularly held twice a year. The first on the calendar is the Chinese New Year, which takes place in January or February, depending on when the Spring Festival falls. The second is on the occasion of the National Day of the People’s Republic of China, October 1, which is held at the end of September. In the times before the epidemic of COVID-19, the Chinese New Year was also marked by a big concert by one of the ensembles that would be a guest in Sarajevo, and before continuing its European tour, the orchestra would also be a guest in another big city in BiH, Banja Luka or Mostar. What is important to note is that receptions are regularly attended by the highest representatives of the state of BiH, members of the Presidency of BiH and the state government, parliament, as well as representatives of lower levels of government, of which there are quite a few in BiH. These receptions are usually an opportunity to confirm good and friendly relations between two countries that have no open issues.
Political activities
The last such reception was held in February 2024, when China marked Spring Festival and Year of Dragon. On that occasion, the ambassador of PRC to BiH, Ji Ping, gave a speech. The past five years have been a period of stable and healthy development of relations between China and Bosnia and Herzegovina. In the past five years, the governments of the two countries have strengthened economic and trade cooperation and people-to-people and cultural exchange, based on the principles of equality, mutual benefit, mutual respect and non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries, and made new progress in cooperation in various fields. Ji mentioned that during his mandate started with many “first” projects, including the construction of the first section of the highway, the first bridge, the first hospital, the first dam, the first sets of wind power, the first section of the tram line and the first smart agriculture project have begun, and many of these projects have already been put to the service of the people of this country.
The reception was attended by numerous dignitaries[1].
None of the projects that were mentioned by Chinese ambassador, of course, were not mentioned by chance. This will be discussed a little later. In 2024, Ambassador Ji gave two interviews. He gave the first interview to the news agency Srna (Serbian News Agency), which was founded by the National Assebmy of Republic of Srpska (NSRS), and to the greatest extent follows the policy of the ruling coalition in this BiH entity. The Chinese ambassador talked about many things, including the relations between the two countries. He noted again that the two countries have long respected each other’s sovereignty, independence, national unity and territorial integrity based on the principle of mutual non-interference in internal affairs. “In recent years, political mutual trust has been further strengthened, economic and trade cooperation has been fruitful, and interpersonal and cultural exchange is also on the rise[2]“.
The second interview is also a farewell interview given by the ambassador in the magazine Glas Kine (Voice of China), which is published with the support of the Embassy. And in this interview it was emphasized that, from the political aspect, China always respects the sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of BiH and does not interfere in the internal affairs of BiH. At the same time, Bosnia and Herzegovina adheres to the principle of one China from the beginning,” Ji emphasized[3].
From a political standpoint, these are important messages that may go without saying, but they need to be repeated from time to time, both ways. Why? On the one hand, it is widely known that BiH is a country with a special status. Even after the war in the 1990s, the fate of BiH as a single state is sometimes questioned, especially in terms of the separation of the RS entity from the state of BiH and, eventually, its annexation to the Republic of Serbia. This narrative is present, no matter how (un)realistic it is. Along with that narrative usually goes the one about BiH’s impossibility to be a normal state, about which volumes of books have also been written. Without going into all the details of those scenarios, in certain circles in BiH, but also more widely, there is a timid suspicion that China would support such a turn of events. It must be said that such a narrative is being tried to be nurtured in certain circles within the RS, which emphasize “China’s good cooperation with the Serbian people and the Republic of Srpska[4]“.
The good relations that the leaders of the Serbs in the RS entity are developing with Russia, which since Ukraine has been de facto in open hostility with the European Union, are in favor of the creators of such a fiction. Why fiction? Because it is a matter of having a minimum of common sense to understand that China would not support the unilateral secession of any country, including BiH.
That is why it is important that BiH leaders, on the other hand, support the “one China” policy, which, after all, was emphasized by the ambassador in his public appearances. It is no secret that part of the elite in BiH is strongly oriented towards the EU and NATO, that is, the United States. The influence of the USA on internal developments in BiH cannot be overemphasized. In the context of demands for decoupling and derisking coming from certain circles in the West, those same circles expect BiH to follow Western attitudes towards China. Even more than the West itself does. In that “set” there is no questioning of the “one China” policy, but there are other questions from the register of Western criticism of the state of human rights in China. BiH seems to be being asked to choose a side, even more so than Western European countries do when it comes to China. Therefore, in addition to the issue of adhering to the “one China” policy, it is extremely important that in the last interview Ambassador Ji explained China’s support for BiH’s efforts to join the European Union[5]. That this is not a momentary jump, but a continuous policy of China, is shown by the fact that the ambassador repeated the same position on several occasions, including the “Coffee and Tea” forum, which was dedicated to the Belt and Road Initiative and BiH’s place in that initiative. Ambassador Ji mentioned the “Global Gateway” plan proposed by the EU, which, according to Ji, can be aligned with the BRI, and the Western Balkan Economic Growth Plan can be aligned with the cooperation between China and the countries of the Central and Eastern of Europe[6].
Visits to China and messages
The biggest foreign policy event organized by the PRC in 2023 was the Third Forum of the BRI. The BiH delegation was represented by the delegation of the Parliamentary Assembly (PA) of BiH. The delegation was led by the chairman of the House of Representatives and chairman of the Friendship Group with Asia, Marinko Čavara, a high-ranking official of the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ BiH). In his address in the framework of the thematic panel “Connecting peoples – connections between people”, Čavara assessed that the BRI created a solid foundation for the cooperation of countries, peoples and people on partnership relations and became a platform for preserving peace, and strengthening the well-being, solidarity and cooperation of nations and people in order to create a common future. He thanked the PRC for its friendly relationship with BiH and for the constant improvement of cooperation in the fields of transport, energy, health, agriculture and other areas. Čavara concluded that it is important in the foreign policy interest of BiH to continue improving bilateral political, economic and all other relations with the China[7].
It is important to point out that the parliamentary delegation consisted of representatives of parties that are both part of the government and the opposition, as well as parties of different ideological spectrum. Deputy Chairman of the Friendship Group, Albin Muslić, an official of the Social Democratic Party of BiH (SDP BiH), participated in the “Coffee and Tea” forum, organized by the Association.of BiH-Chinese friendship. He presented his impressions from his visit to China. Muslić said that the positive sides of the visit can be seen: “We have already been contacted by numerous businessmen who inquired about the ways in which they can join the ‘Belt and Road’ Initiative in order to benefit from this cooperation”[8].
The third member of the parliamentary delegation, Branislav Borenović, the president of the Party of Democratic Progress (PDP), in a media appearance while he was still in Beijing, made the observation that the China is one of the few countries with which BiH has no open issues and with which economic cooperation is gaining increasing importance through the BRI[9].
A significant delegation to China was led by the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Health in the RS Government, Alen Šeranić. He attended the China-Europe Development and Cooperation Forum in Shanghai, during which he had the opportunity to address the participants. Šeranić pointed out that the priority of RS is to develop infrastructure, improve education and strengthen the economy[10]. Šeranić’s colleague from the RS Government, the Minister for EU Integration and International Cooperation, Zlatan Klokić said that the President of the RS Milorad Dodik and the Government initiated the opening of the representative office of the RS in Shanghai: “The Republic of Srpska sees in China a sincere friend and partner in the era of global changes, which is manifested through numerous joint projects and long-term cooperation, and with the opening of the representative office they will improve even more[11].
Political parties from the entity Federation of BiH do not look favorably on the opening of representative offices of the entity of the RS in the world, arguing that they are more in a political than a development function, and the fact that BiH is not mentioned in the speeches of the ministers from the RS is in their favor. Be that as it may, the work of this representative office in Shanghai will show its purpose.
Important forums
Forums in which representatives of the governmental and non-governmental sectors from the two countries take part is considered to be an important point in relations between China and BiH. In this sense, the most current forum is “Coffee and Tea”, which is organized by the “Bosnian-Chinese Friendship” Association. The forum has the symbolic name “Coffee and Tea”, which suggests that despite the difference in cultures, people from the two countries should cooperate and be friends[12].
So far, seven of these formats have been held, in which more than a hundred people from BiH participated, including high-ranking officials, members of Parliament, former and current BiH ambassadors, professors and lecturers at the faculty and other members of the academic community, representatives of the civil sector, etc. From the Chinese side, the Embassy of the PRC in BiH is active in the “Coffee and Tea” forum always, as are other representatives of Chinese civil society organizations that come to BiH.
In addition to the “Coffee and Tea” forum, it should be emphasized that in 2023, significant jubilee of the ten years of BRI was marked with a large conference. Among those present were the leaders of the Association of Chinese Businessmen in BiH – which gathers representatives of large of Chinese companies present in BiH, as well as representatives of the Foreign Trade Chamber of BiH[13].
Foreign trade exchange in 2023
When it comes to foreign trade, the numbers are not favorable for BiH. Imports to China are significantly higher than exports to this country, and this imbalance, unfortunately, has increased compared to 2022. Exports to China thus amounted to 36.3 million in 2023 KM (cca EUR 18 million), and it was 5% less compared to the previous year. On the other hand, imports from China amounted to 1.1 billion KM (more than 550 million EUR), which is 20% more than in 2022. The deficit amounts to more than one billion KM, and the coverage of imports by exports is only 3.4%. According to tariffs, only six groups of articles whose value exceeds millions are exported to China. It is mainly about treated and untreated wood and other wooden products, constructions, etc. On the other hand, 20 tariff items imported from China have a value of more than ten million including toys, lamps, shoes, cloth, and at the very top are diodes, transistors and similar semiconductor elements; photo-sensitive semiconductor elements, whose import value in 2023 amounted to more than 150 million marks[14].
Tourist potential in 2023
When it comes to tourism potential, the visa-free regime raised the bar of expectations to a high, six-digit level, which happened in 2019, the year that preceded the corona, and which represented an exponential growth compared to previous years. Unfortunately, the COVID-19 epidemic reduced the numbers to three digits, i.e. four- and five-digit numbers in the years that followed, but while there is a visa-free regime as an assumption that must be followed by some other factors (the economic situation in China, the security situation in Europe, general and targeted tourist offer in Bosnia and Herzegovina), the optimism is well-founded. Although BiH, through the long-term process of European integration, will be forced to harmonize the visa regime with China (but also Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Russia) in the way that the countries of the European Union have done, there are no indications that this will happen in the near future.
Investments, projects
When it comes to investments and projects in which Chinese companies are involved, there is an increasing trend in the presence of Chinese companies, just as we mentioned at the beginning of the text, referring to the ambassador’s remarks. When it comes to transport projects, Chinese companies cooperate with public companies in both entities, on the construction of parts of the highway on the Vc corridor, but also on other parts of the highway network. Thus, Chinese companies participated in the construction of a subdivision near the town of Čapljina in Herzegovina[15], the construction of the Počitelj bridge[16], also in Herzegovina, the construction of the section of the Banja Luka – Prijedor highway in the northwest of the RS entity[17], and the construction of the section of the highway from Vukosavlje to Brčko in the northeast of the RS entity[18]. When it comes to energy, the largest investment by a Chinese company in the energy system of BiH is recorded here, namely the Ivovik wind farm in northern Herzegovina[19]. In addition to this project, Chinese companies were or are still involved in the construction of thermal power plants (Stanari[20], Block 7 TPP Tuzla[21]) and hydropower plants (Buk Bijela[22], Dabar[23]), and there is also interest in the construction of solar power plants. When it comes to the healthcare sector, the ambassador mentioned cooperation in that area, primarily due to the construction project of the Sveti Luka hospital in Doboj, which has actually been completed and is just waiting for the opening ceremony[24]. The same city in central Bosnia, Doboj, is connected to the pioneering project of smart agriculture, which installed modern Chinese agricultural equipment[25].
Media articles and campaigns
All of these projects are followed by media articles, some of which are negatively intoned towards China. In some texts, the fact that China is an “autocratic state” is problematized[26]; in others “corruption” is mentioned[27], and in the third, the debt slavery into which China forces its partners[28]. What kind of content is published and who are the media that publish such texts? Sometimes it is about texts that are transmitted by the media from other, Western media[29]. Another type of media is media that relies on Western institutions such as Voice of America and Radio Free Europe[30]. Finally, the third is the local media, which mostly have certain grants from financiers from the West, grants intended for the fight against corruption, Chinese malignant influence, etc. In them, you can also find texts about irregularities in the functioning of Chinese companies, that is, companies that have Chinese owners in Bosnia and Herzegovina[31].
EU or China – a false dilemma
In these media articles and analyses, a narrative is being pushed that partially reaches some of the political decision-makers, but also the wider public, that a greater connection with China, and a greater presence of Chinese companies that apply for public tenders, is harmful to Bosnia and Herzegovina and its interests. As if it is something non-European or anti-European in its essence. Such a narrative is being tried to be imposed while ignoring the fact that China and the EU are each other’s biggest or among the biggest trading partners. After all, China has always supported BiH’s path towards EU membership, which, after all, was confirmed by the outgoing Chinese ambassador Ji Ping in his last interview.
Conclusion
Cooperation between BiH and China is progressing in all fields, with potential threats of disruption that come due to the influence that Western countries have on part of the political elites in BiH. The thawing of Beijing’s relations with Brussels and Washington would consequently relax relations with BiH, even though the West would still like to exercise more control over political and other processes in BiH. Every project – whether it is an investment or the participation of companies through public tenders – will continue to be under the increased attention of various media. At the same time, it is necessary to continue to work on strengthening awareness among political elites in BiH in the position and development of China on the international stage.
[1] The Chinese Embassy held a reception in Sarajevo, attended by Dodik, Krišto and numerous other officials. https://www.klix.ba/vijesti/bih/ambasada-kine-uprilicila-prijem-u-sarajevu-prisustvovali-dodik-kristo-i-brojni-drugi-zvanicnici/240209019
[2] Ji Ping: China stands for the multipolarity of the world. https://www.glassrpske.com/lat/novosti/vijesti_dana/dji-ping-kina-se-zalaze-za-multipolarnost-svijeta/502960
[3] Ji Ping: BiH’s national interest is parallel relations with both China and the EU https://pojasiput.ba/glas-kine/glas-kine-17/
[4] Spasić: China’s support for the Serbian people; Dodik’s moves led to fruitful results for Serbia. https://lat.rtrs.tv/vijesti/vijest.php?id=531482
[5] Ji Ping: BiH’s national interest is parallel relations with both China and the EU https://pojasiput.ba/glas-kine/glas-kine-17/
[6] Ji Ping: China supports BiH’s entry into the EU, but also more cooperation with China.
https://n1info.ba/vijesti/ji-ping-kina-podrzava-ulazak-bih-u-eu-ali-i-vise-saradnje-sa-kinom/
[7] Chairman of the House of Representatives and Friendship Group for Asia PSBiH Marinko Čavara participates in China at the Third Forum for International Cooperation “Belt and Road”. https://www.parlament.ba/Publication/Read/24138?pageId=238
[8] Parliamentarian Muslić: Many businessmen have asked how they can be part of the Chinese “Belt and Road”. https://www.klix.ba/biznis/privreda/parlamentarac-muslic-brojni-privrednici-se-raspitivali-kako-mogu-biti-dio-kineskog-pojasa-i-puta/231114137
[9] BH. POLITICIANS STAYED IN CHINA: “One of the rare countries with which BiH has no open issues”. https://www.slobodna-bosna.ba/vijest/322801/bh_politichari_boravili_u_kini_jedna_od_rijetkih_zemalja_sa_kojima_bih_nema_otvorenih_pitanja.html
[10] Šeranić and the Srpska delegation in China: RS partner and friend in the era of global changes
[11] Klokić: We are opening a representative office of Srpska in Shanghai. https://lat.rtrs.tv/vijesti/vijest.php?id=519307
[12] “Bosnian-Chinese Friendship” Association: First “Coffee and Tea” Forum Held
https://boskin.ba/udruzenje-bosansko-kinesko-prijatelstvo-odrzan-prvi-forum-kafa-i-caj/
[13] Conference on the ‘Belt and Road’ Initiative: BiH should look for its chances. https://fena.ba/article/1546480/konferencija-o-inicijativi-pojas-i-put-bih-treba-traziti-svoje-sanse
[14] Data obtained from the Chamber of Foreign Trade of BiH.
[15] THE CHINESE ARE HIRING: A company from Wuhan is looking for builders in Herzegovina, here’s how much they plan to pay the workers. https://www.novikonjic.ba/2023/11/18/kinezi-zaposljavaju-firma-iz-wuhana-trazi-gradjevince-po-hercegovini-evo-koliko-planiraju-platiti-radnike/
[16] New video released: Here’s how the final works on the bridge near Počitelje are going. https://radiosarajevo.ba/vijesti/bosna-i-hercegovina/objavljen-novi-snimak-evo-kako-teku-zavrsni-radovi-na-mostu-kod-pocitelja/531627
[17] The Prijedor – Banja Luka highway received its first kilometers. https://banjaluka.net/auto-put-prijedor-banjaluka-dobio-prve-kilometre/
[18] Vukosavlje-Brčko highway: There will be three interchanges, a bridge and eight overpasses on the 33 km. https://www.nezavisne.com/ekonomija/privreda/Autoput-Vukosavlje-Brcko-Na-33-km-bice-tri-petlje-most-i-osam-nadvoznjaka/768441
[19] The construction of the Ivovik Wind Park is halfway through. https://www.federalna.ba/izgradnja-vjetroelektrane-ivovik-na-pola-puta-jul8h
[20] Xinhua Headlines: China-built modern power plant puts BiH town on the map. http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-11/26/c_138584879.htm
[21] PRC and BiH cooperation: Case study of Tuzla TPP. https://china-cee.eu/2022/11/20/bosnia-herzegovina-economy-briefing-prc-and-bih-cooperation-case-study-of-tuzla-tpp/
[22] The Chinese are asking for additional guarantees from Srpska for the construction of HPP “Buk Bijela”. https://www.capital.ba/kinezi-traze-dodatne-garancije-srpske-za-izgradnju-he-buk-bijela/
[23] The Chinese are working extensively on all construction sites of HPP “Dabar”. https://padrino.ba/vijesti/kinezi-uveliko-rade-na-svim-gradilistima-he-dabar/
[24] Doboj: New hospital in operation by the end of the year. https://www.novostiplus.org/bs/doboj-nova-bolnica-u-funkciji-do-kraja-godine/
[25] The most modern greenhouse system was put into operation in Doboj. https://manager.ba/vijesti/u-doboju-pu%C5%A1ten-u-rad-najmoderniji-plasteni%C4%8Dki-sistem
[26] Who enabled the Chinese to take over natural resources in Herzegovina. https://www.fokus.ba/vijesti/bih/ko-je-kinezima-omogucio-da-preuzimaju-prirodne-resurse-po-hercegovini/2342724/
[27] Chinese companies known for corruption and bribing politicians are penetrating BiH. https://www.fokus.ba/vijesti/bih/kineske-gradjevinske-kompanije-poznate-po-korupciji-i-podmicivanju-politicara-prodiru-u-bih/1518332/
[28] Chinese infrastructure investment or debt slavery? https://bijeljina.com/drustvo/kineske-investicije-u-infrastrukturu-ili-duznicko-ropstvo/
[29] Serious economic problems are looming in China: the stock market is in free fall. https://www.klix.ba/biznis/finansije/naziru-se-ozbiljni-ekonomski-problemi-u-kini-berza-u-slobodnom-padu/240116145
[30] ‘China is looking for influence and a place for its workers in the Balkans’. https://www.slobodnaevropa.org/a/erin-murphy-csis-kina-na-balkanu/32577667.html
[31] CHINESE INVESTMENTS IN BIH: Lucrative deals characterized by questionable loans, non-transparency and suspicion of corruption. https://zurnal.info/clanak/unosni-poslovi-koje-karakterisu-sporni-krediti-netransparentnost-i-sumnja-na-korupciju/26110