Weekly Briefing, Vol. 65. No. 3 (Sl) September 2023
The proceedings and aftermath of one of the largest disasters in the history of Slovenia, and the consequences of climate change
Summary
Only slightly over a year after the devastating wildfire caused significant damage to the Slovenian Karst region amidst a record-dry and hot summer of 2022, perhaps even more catastrophic floods and landslides that followed unusual and intense weather events with precipitation in a short timeframe occurred in the first week of August 2023. The floods caused the loss of human lives as well as enormous infrastructural and household damage in large parts of Slovenia.
While there has been extended effort to help the affected Slovenian citizens and localities, many experts warn that such disasters may continue to occur in a frequent manner lest we acknowledge the danger of climate change and actively work toward greener policies that might allow for a sustainable future.
Background: the unusual meteorological events of recent years and the dangers of climate change
While the discussion on climate change used to be considered controversial and sometimes shunned, recent years have shown that due to the perceived scale of global changes possibly related to the far-reaching climate change such discussion may be both prudent and urgent. While Slovenia does not traditionally stand out on a global level on account of its temperature extremes due to its rather favorable geographical position, the sudden fluctuations and longer-period increases in temperature which may have led to natural disasters have become a cause of serious concern.
Already in 2019, a leading Slovenian climatologist Lučka Kajfež Bogataj presented a warning ahead of the increased possibility of so-called “superstorms” which may be related to the more complex changes in the earth`s climate and which may be irreversible. [1] The respected scholar reiterated the statements three years later after the summer of several unwelcome occurrences including unusually high temperatures and summer heat waves, drought, the shortage of drinking water in some parts of Slovenia, and finally, wildfires. [2] The devastating wildfire that raged in the Slovenian Karst region in July 2022 was perhaps the worst natural disaster in the past 20 years before the 2023 catastrophic floods. [3]
For at least 20 years some Slovenian and foreign climate experts have warned about the changed climate situation and about the need to notice and combat new reality. Years before the natural disasters of 2022 and 2023 Kajfež Bogataj made a prediction that we should start adapting to new conditions, that both droughts and floods will be getting worse while new diseases and new pests may start to spread, that climate change, directly and indirectly, threatens health, and also that we do not know how to take advantage of the opportunities provided by the longer growing season the age of plants which leads us to un-optimal solution in inopportune times. [4]
The year 2019 was the year when due to excessive heat, particularly in June and in the final months of the year, a lot of discussion on imminent climate changes have been upheld. [5] Among the most recognizable consequences of extreme temperatures is the melting of Alpine glaciers, and in 2019 the Triglav glacier, formerly the largest Slovenian glacier that has already been reduced to a little more than a moderately sized snowfield has been observed as being practically extinct. [6] While the now small remains of the once vast glacier slightly recovered in the following years, the 2022 summer would bring new challenges for the recovery.
The year 2022 was meteorologically highly problematic on a larger scale and became emblematic for the representation of what we might expect in the future on a more regular basis. The summer of 2022 was deemed historical in terms of extreme temperatures which included many daily and even monthly temperature records, followed by drought, drinking water shortage, and wildfires, including the devastating July Karst wildfire. [7]
The winter of 2022/23 and the continuation of 2023 have not been as dry and hot as the previous year, but a large amount of precipitation during summer, conjoined with the energy crisis brought along other, perhaps even more problematic issues.
While all three months of summer 2023 were above-averagely warm in comparison to the years 1991–2020, the deviation has not been particularly significant in regard to data from recent years while the summer of 2023 marked the 9th summer in a row with above-average temperatures.
On the other hand, the amount of precipitation was excessive and the summer precipitation level indicator at the national level amounted to 164% compared to the average level. This is the highest value for summers since 1950, the period for which we have comparative data. This summer’s precipitation indicator is stated to be nearly 20% higher than the wettest summers ever recorded in 1989 (145%), and 1969, 2005, and 1975 (around 140%). [8]
While such an extreme level of precipitation may not indicate the climate changes as immediately as last year`s temperature records, it may be a representative of complex climate trends where natural disasters might occur on a more frequent level than before, and as it turns out it can also have devastating consequences.
The August 2023 floods in Slovenia: how and why it happened
As presented above, the summer of 2023 has had a significantly above-average amount of precipitation which already caused many problems in July 2023, up to a month before the disastrous flood of August 2023.
Among several precipitation-caused events that predated the flood in August at least two previous instances of heavy rainfall with significant consequences that happened in July 2023 should be mentioned.
On July 18, 2023, a strong storm front passed Slovenia. Strong gusts of wind, which in some places reached over 100 kilometers per hour, felled trees, and uncovered roofs in many places across the country; especially affected were parts of Eastern Steyrmark, some of which would be near the epicenter of a much larger natural disaster the following month. The events left thousands of customers without electricity in various parts of the country, and 253 people were evacuated during the storms. [9]
The unstable weather with frequent intervals of heavy storms and large amounts of precipitation continued until July 26, 2023, and between the 24th and 26th of July, there was a continuous weather window of strong storms, hail, and heavy wind. This has particularly affected the Southeastern part of Slovenia,[10] though large parts of the country were affected in at least some way as the danger of landslides and river floods loomed over Slovenia since the land has been vulnerable after the period of troublesome weather.
Despite many warned in the past that the infrastructure and terrain cultivation may have problematic consequences if the frequency and intensity of storms increase as predicted,[11] few expected the disaster of such drastic consequences as it unfolded in the first week of August 2023. In days before August 3, 2023, the National Meteorological Service of Slovenia (a part of the National Environment Agency of Slovenia (ARSO)) issued several warnings about the potentially problematic high amount of rain that was predicated to fall on August 3 and the following days. [12]
According to the report by the ARSO, the first rain showers were formed in the humid south-west airflow on the Alpine-Dinaric barrier already in the second in the middle of the night from August 2 to August 3, 2023, but the precipitation was not abundant until the morning of the 3rd August. The conditions of the night before were however just a prelude to the extraordinary weather events of the next 36 hours. In the early hours of August 3, 2023, a more established and distinct belt with more intense precipitation appeared mostly in the north and southern state borders of Slovenia as well as northeastern Italy and parts of Austrian Carinthia. Toward the evening of the same day, the precipitation that first occurred in the northwest of Slovenia strengthened, and a distinct heavy rainfall passed northern Slovenia between 19:00 and 22:00. The heavy rain showers and thunderstorms continued from the Alpine-Dinaric barrier, Gorenjska, and Kamnik-Savinja Alps and its adjacent areas and moving toward Carinthia, the north of Styria and the south-eastern part of Austria. The bulk of the precipitation fell in less than 6 hours.
Only in the morning hours of August did the stormy weather events in northern and eastern Slovenia begin to subside while the center of gravity of precipitation, including downpours, moved to the southwestern and southern parts of Slovenia. While occasional precipitation continued for a further two days, most of the damaging events took place on August 3 and lasted until the morning of August 4, 2023. [13]
The consequences of such an immense amount of precipitation were immediate and devastating. In Upper Carniola and Central Slovene region, the worst situation was in and around the towns of Škofja Loka and Kamnik where the rivers Sora and Kamniška Bistrica, as well as several landslides, caused significant damage to infrastructure and households[14] while many roads including border passes such as Ljubelj were closed after the stormy events. [15] In those regions, at least three human fatalities due to weather-related events were recorded. [16]
Perhaps even worse than in the aforementioned regions was the situation in the Eastern Slovene Steyrmark (particularly the Savinja river region) and Slovene Carinthia where settlements such as Luče and Ljubno[17] and the town of Črna na Koroškem[18] which were practically isolated from the rest of Slovenia for days as there was a total collapse of connecting infrastructure and While those regions were hit later, they were struck even more devastatingly as the infrastructural damage and the damage on households was enormous and many lost their homes in floods. While the Slovenian government acted quickly and enacted several layers of aid, some of the affected citizens still do not have a clear replacement solution on a more permanent basis as of September 2023. [19]
While the floods caused the loss of human lives, the destruction of infrastructure and housing and may be considered the worst natural disaster in the history of independent Slovenia[20] there has also been a slightly more positive spin to the situation in the aftermath of the events as many people unselfishly helped the affected citizens and donated for their losses. On August 14, 2023, the Solidarity Day was proclaimed by the government which was intended for the people to help the ones affected by the disaster,[21] and among others, a charity soccer match of former international stars was organized on September 15, 2023, the earnings of which went for the reconstruction efforts after the floods. [22]
After the floods: looking at the past and future solutions to avert natural disasters
After the devastating events of early August, there have been a lot of discussions focused on the reasons why the floods, based on the type of weather events that usually only occur in late Autumn in a much lighter form, were so devastating, and why natural disasters seem to happen at an accelerated rate in recent times.
It is widely believed that while the unusually intense weather events (precipitation) caused the rivers to overflow and landslides to occur and thus there would likely be damage to some property regardless of risks, the lack of state or expert oversight, hindsight, and regulative measures which allowed unsafe infrastructural and private building projects may have exacerbated the damage. As some experts believe, the state failed to regulate currents and the people tended to “take away space” from the water flows, forcefully changing current patterns, and creating dangerous conditions. The leader of the committee for reconstruction after the floods also stated the belief that the disaster is one of the signs of large-scale climate change. [23]
While there are other reasons for the excessive devastation that the weather events caused which may also include improper handling of forested areas and non-optimal building materials, the pundits seem to be in accord that the increased frequency and intensity of unusual weather events potentially leading to natural disasters could be related to the human effect on the environment and the accelerated climate changes. [24]
As the leading Slovenian climatologist Lučka Kajfež Bogataj pointed out, we should not forget and abstain from green and environmentally friendly policies and industrial solutions at the “first signs of crisis” as the hasty and improper responses to crises may be problematic in the long run. [25] For example, the energy crisis that intensified in mid-2022, led Germany which is a critical Slovenian trading and energy partner to restart its coal-based energy production premises;[26] while the Slovenian government remains focused on providing greener energy alternatives, the crisis has not helped in the process and the relatively highly-polluting Šoštanj Thermal Power Plant remains currently the largest energy plant in Slovenia according to the installed power. [27]
It seems clear that the decision-makers and citizens of Slovenia, much in other countries around the world will need to focus ever more energy on actively helping the transition towards more environmentally friendly living alternatives lest the natural disasters may continue to unfold in an accelerated manner in both their frequency and intensity.
Conclusion
While the prospect of climate change was silenced and even ridiculed by many critical decision-makers in the past, recent years have brought along an unprecedented amount of unexpected and intense weather events in a short time frame that are potentially leading to natural disasters, including wildfires in Slovenian Karst region in July 2022, and the devastating floods of August 2023. Those have only exacerbated social distress caused by the societal and economic crisis that occurred alongside natural disasters in the past 15 years.
While not directly caused by human means, natural disasters may in many ways be causally related to human interference with environmental reproduction and with human control over nature. The natural disaster of recent years may however prove to be a waking call for those who still deny the effects of climate change, leading to a transition towards greener living alternatives.
[1] Consult “Lučka Kajfež Bogataj: Podnebne spremembe so nepovratne in bodo tu tudi ostale,” MMC Radiotelevizije Slovenija, accessed September 20, 2023, https://prvi.rtvslo.si/podkast/jutro/173251485/174900137.
[2] See “Dr. Lučka Kajfež Bogataj: Podnebne spremembe so tu in bodo tu tudi ostale,” Eko dežela, accessed September 20, 2023, https://www.ekodezela.si/eko-okolje/dr-lucka-kajfez-bogataj-podnebne-spremembe-so-tu-in-bodo-tu-tudi-ostale/.
[3] Consult e.g. N. Š., “`Z gotovostjo lahko rečemo, da je to največji požar v zgodovini Slovenije,`” Zurnal24.si, July 20, 2022, https://www.zurnal24.si/slovenija/z-gotovostjo-lahko-recemo-da-je-to-najvecji-pozar-v-zgodovini-slovenije-390009.
[4] Source: Borut Tavčar, “Lučka Kajfež Bogataj: Podnebne spremembe so na prvem mestu,” Delo, December 10, 2019, https://www.delo.si/delova-osebnost-leta/lucka-kajfez-bogataj-podnebne-spremembe-so-na-prvem-mestu/.
[5] See yearly temperature overview and applicable data from the National Meteorological Agency of Slovenia: “Podnebne razmere leta 2019,” ARSO, accessed September 20, 2023, https://meteo.arso.gov.si/uploads/probase/www/climate/text/sl/weather_events/podnebne-razmere-leta-2019.pdf (page 3).
[6] Consider Maja Prijatelj Videmšek, “Prepozno za žalni venec. Triglavskega ledenika ni več,” Delo, October 2, 2019, https://www.delo.si/novice/okolje/prepozno-za-zalni-venec-triglavskega-ledenika-ni-vec/.
[7] Among others see Matic Tomšič, “Zgodovinska vročina v Sloveniji: padel je nov record,” SiolNET, June 28, 2022, https://siol.net/novice/slovenija/zgodovinska-vrocina-v-sloveniji-padel-je-nov-rekord-582708; M. P. V., STA, “V več krajih po državi julijski temperaturni rekordi,” Delo, July 23, 2023, https://www.delo.si/novice/okolje/v-vec-krajih-po-drzavi-julijski-temperaturni-rekordi/; and T. K. B., Al. Ma., M. Z., “Večina evakuiranih se je vrnila. Šestan: To je največji požar v zgodovini Slovenije,” MMC Radiotelevizije Slovenija, July 20, 2022, https://www.rtvslo.si/okolje/vecina-evakuiranih-se-je-vrnila-sestan-to-je-najvecji-pozar-v-zgodovini-slovenije/634728.
[8] Conversely, the summer of 2022 was among the three driest in recorded history with only around 60% of the average level of precipitation. Source: “Podnebne značilnosti zadnjega letnega časa: Podnebne značilnosti meteorološkega poletja 2023,” ARSO, accessed September 20, 2023, https://meteo.arso.gov.si/met/sl/climate/current/climate_season/.
[9] Source: STA, “#foto: Močna neurja po državi znova odkrivala strehe in podirala drevesa, evakuiranih 253 ljudi,” Dnevnik, July 18, 2023, https://www.dnevnik.si/1043028447.
[10] See e.g. “Nevihte, 24.-26. julij 2023: največ dežja na Gorjancih,” ePosavje, accessed September 20, 2023, https://www.eposavje.com/ostale-novice/nevihte-24-26-julij-2023.
[11] Refer to, among others, “Lučka Kajfež Bogataj: Podnebne spremembe so nepovratne in bodo tu tudi ostale,” MMC Radiotelevizije Slovenija, accessed September 20, 2023, https://prvi.rtvslo.si/podkast/jutro/173251485/174900137.
[12] See Da. B., “Prihaja divji vremenski vikend, najhujša fronta letos,” Zurnal24.si, August 3, 2023, https://www.zurnal24.si/slovenija/neurje-vreme-poplave-vremenska-napoved-arso-nevihta-dez-plazovi-urszr-409941. While there has been some preparation against the consequences of problematic weather due to intense warnings, it remains a question what could have at all been done to prevent devastating consequences of floods, at least in a short timeframe.
[13] Source: “Nalivi in obilne padavine od 3. do 6. avgusta 2023: Preliminarno poročilo,” ARSO, accessed September 20, 2023, https://meteo.arso.gov.si/uploads/probase/www/climate/text/sl/weather_events/padavine_3-6avg2023-preliminarno.pdf.
[14] See the report and photos at STA, M. B., V. U., “V Kamniku in na območju Škofje Loke katastrofalne razmere,” Delo, August 4, 2023, https://www.delo.si/novice/okolje/poveljnik-civilne-zascite-pod-vodo-je-celotna-gorenjska/.
[15] See A. Ž., M. Š., STA, “Obsežne poplave prizadele tudi avstrijsko Koroško,” SiolNET, August 4, 2023, https://siol.net/novice/svet/obsezne-poplave-prizadele-tudi-avstrijsko-korosko-612690.
[16] Source: Maša Likosar, “Poplave terjale že tri smrtne žrtve,” Gorenjski glas, August 4, 2023, https://www.gorenjskiglas.si/article/20230804/C/230809917/1003/poplave-terjale-ze-tri-smrtne-zrtve.
[17] See K. Š., “`Še vedno se skušamo prebiti do Ljubnega in Luč, da bomo ljudi lahko oskrbovali`,” N1, August 5, 2023, https://n1info.si/novice/slovenija/se-vedno-se-skusamo-prebiti-do-ljubnega-in-luc-da-bomo-ljudi-lahko-oskrbovali-poplave-slovenija-savinja-2023/.
[18] Črna na Koroškem has been singled out as the locality most affected by the events and where the destruction could be most clearly seen: T.H. / Maja Pavlin, “Prebili smo se v izolirano Črno na Koroškem, evakuacija prebivalcev ob Meži,” 24.com, August 5, 2023, https://www.24ur.com/novice/slovenija/prvi-posnetki-iz-odrezane-crne-kamor-se-je-koncno-prebila-pomoc.html.
[19] Consult Ksenja Tratnik, “Mesec dni po poplavah: `Vsi se trudijo, a gre vse počasi, zima pa bo hitro tu`,” MMC Radiotelevizije Slovenija, September 13, 2023, https://www.rtvslo.si/lokalne-novice/poplave/mesec-dni-po-poplavah-vsi-se-trudijo-a-gre-vse-pocasi-zima-pa-bo-hitro-tu/681321. Among the interventions of the government to financially help the affected localities and citizens were the drafting of Act Determining Intervention Measures for Flood and Landslide Recovery of August 2023 with its stipulations and direct aid-packages to affected municipalities; see: “Draft Act Determining Intervention Measures for Flood and Landslide Recovery of August 2023,” Portal GOV.SI, accessed September 20, 2023, https://www.gov.si/en/news/2023-08-24-draft-act-determining-intervention-measures-for-flood-and-landslide-recovery-of-august-2023/; K. T., “Veljati je začel interventni zakon z ukrepi za pomoč po uničujoči ujmi,” MMC Radiotelevizije Slovenija, September 2, 2023, https://www.rtvslo.si/lokalne-novice/poplave/veljati-je-zacel-interventni-zakon-z-ukrepi-za-pomoc-po-unicujoci-ujmi/679999; and Al. Ma., “Predhodna ocena: na infrastrukturi 123 občin je za dobro milijardo evrov škode,” MMC Radiotelevizije Slovenija, September 13, 2023, https://www.rtvslo.si/lokalne-novice/poplave/predhodna-ocena-na-infrastrukturi-123-obcin-je-za-dobro-milijardo-evrov-skode/681311.
[20] The Prime Minister Robert Golob stated that at least in terms of damage, the floods were likely the most devastating disaster in history of Slovenia: Borut Tavčar, “Golob: Verjetno največja škoda v zgodovini samostojne Slovenije,” Delo, August 4, 2023, https://www.delo.si/novice/obnavljamo-slovenijo/velik-del-slovenije-je-pod-vodo-a-se-ni-konec/.
[21] See “14. avgust – dan solidarnosti,” Portal GOV.SI, accessed September 20, 2023, https://www.gov.si/novice/2023-08-10-14-avgust-dan-solidarnosti/.
[22] The earnings amounted to more than EUR 3,5 million: N. P., “Za žrtve poplav v Stožicah zbrali več kot 3,5 milijona evrov,” N1, September 15, 2023, https://n1info.si/novice/slovenija/za-zrtve-poplav-v-stozicah-zbrali-vec-kot-35-milijona-evrov/.
[23] Source: Nejc Gole, “Gradili smo tam, kjer absolutno ne bi smeli,” Delo, September 19, 2023, https://www.delo.si/novice/obnavljamo-slovenijo/drzava-bo-morala-nadzirati-urejanje-vodotokov/.
[24] Among others, see “Zakaj so naravne nesreče v zadnjih desetletjih vse bolj uničujoče?,” Marbo Okolje d.o.o., accessed September 20, 2023, https://marbo-okolje.si/2023/08/16/zakaj-so-naravne-nesrece-v-zadnjih-desetletjih-vse-bolj-unicujoce/; and “Lučka Kajfež Bogataj: Podnebne spremembe so nepovratne in bodo tu tudi ostale,” MMC Radiotelevizije Slovenija, accessed September 20, 2023, https://prvi.rtvslo.si/podkast/jutro/173251485/174900137.
[25] Refer to “Lučka Kajfež Bogataj: Podnebne spremembe so nepovratne in bodo tu tudi ostale,” MMC Radiotelevizije Slovenija, accessed September 20, 2023, https://prvi.rtvslo.si/podkast/jutro/173251485/174900137.
[26] Source: Rob Schmitz, “Amid an energy crisis, Germany turns to the world’s dirtiest fossil fuel,” NPR, September 27, 2022, https://www.npr.org/2022/09/27/1124448463/germany-coal-energy-crisis.
[27] Source: “Naprava za razžveplanje dimnih plinov na 600 MW Bloku 6 v Termoelektrarni Šoštanj,” Rudis, accessed September 20, 2023, https://www.rudis.si/reference/naprava-za-razzveplanje-dimnih-plinov-na-600-mw-bloku-6-v-termoelektrarni-sostanj-2/. Also see coalitional agreement of the 15th Slovenian government: “15. Vlada Republike Slovenije: Program za delo koalicije 2022 – 2026,” Portal GOV.SI, https://www.gov.si/assets/vlada/Vlada_predstavitev_dokumenti/Koalicijski-dogovor-2022-2026-Programski-del-18.5.2022.pdf.