Weekly Briefing, Vol. 65. No. 3 (PL) September 2023
The campaign ahead of the parliamentary elections is entering a crucial phase
Summary
Poland will hold parliamentary elections on 15th of October. The two-term ruling the United Right camp, led by Jarosław Kaczyński, deputy prime minister and chairman of the largest coalition party, the Law and Justice (PiS), is seeking to extend its hold on power. Ambitions to seize power are shared by the opposition, which is running in these elections divided into 4 groups, 3 of which are planning future coalition cooperation. Despite PiS’s poll advantage, the combined support of the opposition parties is higher. However, this does not automatically translate into a government majority for the opposition due to the electoral law that favors the winning party. So the struggle to get the best possible result and win a government majority continues. The major parties have presented their key election demands. The campaign is dominated by socio-economic and worldview issues.
Introduction
Poland’s October parliamentary elections will feature 7 nationwide election committees, 5 of which enjoy the support to ensure parliamentary presence, i.e. have a chance to exceed the 5% electoral threshold (for a coalition of parties it is 8%). The groups running are the ruling national-conservative Law and Justice (PiS), the largest opposition party, the centrist Civic Coalition (KO), the national-libertarian Confederation, the Christian Democrat Trzecia Droga (a coalition of the Polish People’s Party and Szymon Holownia’s Poland 2050 movement) and the leftist New Left.
Pre-election polls show that the average support for parties, among decided voters, based on 6 different September polls is as follows: PiS (38 percent), KO (30 percent), Confederation (10.5 percent), Third Way (9.5 percent), New Left (9 percent)[i]. If these were the election results, it would mean no independent majority for the ruling Law and Justice party, but also no majority for the cooperating opposition groups (KO, New Left and Third Way). The tongue-in-cheek, then, would be the Confederation, which, however, currently rejects entering a coalition with both PiS and the opposition. All major groupings have already presented their election program. The main demands concern socio-economic issues, but also worldviews.
The Law and Justice Party focuses on security and social issues
The ruling camp is trying to portray itself as a guarantor of stability and security during the war in Ukraine at Poland’s border, guaranteeing stability and security also in the social area. It is also trying to strongly its position as the party that guarantees Poland’s sovereignty, using anti-German, anti-Russian and anti-EU themes in the campaign, positioning its opponents from the Civic Coalition as politically subservient to foreign countries. An important element of PiS’s electoral strategy is the referendum ordered by the ruling camp, which will be held together with the parliamentary elections. The referendum questions concern the issue of accepting illegal immigrants, dismantling the wall on Poland’s border with Belarus, raising the retirement age and “selling off Polish national assets.” According to commentators, the selection of the subject matter of the questions and their construction is part of PiS’s electoral strategy, since the opinions of Poles on the referendum issues are fairly well-defined and do not cause much controversy. The result is therefore known in advance. The ruling party is also taking advantage in the campaign of greater power over public media, more favorable campaign finance regulations related to the combination of elections and the referendum, as well as public funds to promote the social programs it has introduced.
The party’s main campaign vehicle is the issue of increasing social support for families and seniors (the core of the party’s electorate is rural residents, seniors and lower earners). The party has announced an increase in support for parents with children (the so-called 500 plus program) from about 111 euro per month per child to 177 euro as of January the 1st 2024, and recalls introducing a reduction in the retirement age during its rule. It also plans to introduce special seniority pensions, to which one can retire after working a certain number of years – women would gain this right after working 38 years and men 43 years.
The party also promises among others:
- free highway passes,
- modernization of old block housing estates,
- improvement of the quality of meals in hospitals,
- trip vouchers for young people,
- solutions to force foreign retail chains to cooperate with Polish farmers so that primarily Polish products are sold on the shelves of markets (the so-called “Local Shelf” program – an obligation to offer in markets a minimum of 2/3 of products such as fruits, vegetables, bread, meats and dairy products from local suppliers).
- free medicines for seniors and children under 18.
According to the Law and Justice Party, Poland’s energy transition based on nuclear and green energy should continue, but coal should remain Poland’s key energy resource. The party also criticizes and intends to eliminate pathologies in the real estate market that limit the supply of housing on the market. The Law and Justice Party Chairman Jaroslaw Kaczynski also pledged to defend cash payments. – We will defend cash like independence – he assured during party’s electoral convention.[ii] . Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki indicated while presenting the Law and Justice program that in six years the salary in Poland is expected to reach the level of France (most likely in terms of purchasing power parity). – Our vision of development is such that at the end of our – hopefully third term – the average salary in Poland will be at least around 2222 euro, he argued. [iii]
The Civic Coalition is betting on women and entrepreneurs
The Civic Coalition (KO) presents itself as a modern, centrist-liberal, “open” party, supporting democratic and European values. The core of its electorate consists of urban residents, entrepreneurs and people with moderately liberal views. KO ruled in Poland from 2007 to 2014, and the party presented at its September program convention “100 concretes” for the first 100 days of the new government. KO’s demands include socio-economic and worldview issues. An important place in the KO campaign is given to fighting for the electorate of women and entrepreneurs. The party also promises to improve Poland’s relations with the European Union and obtain billions of euros from the EU Reconstruction Fund, the disbursement of which to Poland is blocked by Brussels. [iv]
The group’s leader, former Prime Minister Donald Tusk, announced, among other things, an increase in the tax-free amount from about 6,666 euro to about 13,333 euro. He added that with such a solution, senior citizens with pensions up to approx. 1111 euros will not pay income tax, as will those earning up to 1,333 euro. KO is proposing a package of small business-friendly solutions. It includes, among other things, a proposal for the Social Insurance Institution (ZUS) to pay entrepreneurs sick pay from the first day of absence from work (a nod to small entrepreneurs and the self-employed), the introduction of a cash tax (paid only when an invoice is issued).
Other proposals from the “100 Concretes” include, for example:
- an approx. 133 euro rental subsidy for young people, the introduction of a 0 percent loan for those buying their first apartment,
- subsidized rent,
- a”vacation for entrepreneurs” (one month free of social security contributions and a vacation benefit of half the minimum wage),
- a flat-rate system for settling health contributions,
- a reduction in VAT for the beauty sector to 8 percent,
- a second indexation of pensions and annuities when inflation exceeds 5 percent,
- raises for teachers by 30 percent, budget sector employees by 20 percent,
- the abolition of the so-called Belka tax (on savings and investments including those on the Stock Exchange, up to PLN 22 222 euro, over 1 year).
- increase in funeral allowance.
The Civic Coalition also presented, among other things, a proposal to lift the ban on Sunday trading and introduce in its place an alternative in the form of a guarantee of two free weekends a month and double pay for work on days off. She also announced the introduction of legislation that would “make 51 percent of the products in the stores Polish, and this will be done on the basis of fair contracting.” The party also announced the introduction of anti-inflation bonds. Among the KO’s social demands are state funding for in vitro procedures or the introduction of free anesthesia for mothers in childbirth and free prenatal tests. The party advocates introducing legal abortion up to the 12th week of pregnancy.
The Chadec Third Way
The Third Way is a coalition of the Polish People’s Party (PSL) and Szymon Holownia’s Poland2050 Party. It is a pro-European center-right grouping with a Christian Democratic face with a program friendly to small business, rural areas and voters tired of the “war between PiS and PO.” The party puts forward business-friendly demands and ideas for boosting the housing market.
The Third Way asserts that it is possible to build one million apartments in Poland within one parliamentary term. It promises the release of all real estate resources from the National Property Stock and support for municipalities, which would receive subsidies to prepare land for investment. For students, the Third Way promised to introduce dormitories for 1 zloty (Polish currency) – 0.25 euro. It proposes the partial abolition of Sunday trading in the form of the introduction of two trading Sundays per week. The grouping announces that it will not increase PIT (personal income tax), CIT (corporate income tax)and VAT (sales tax) taxes throughout its first term. On top of that, it proposes tax cuts for families. – Family PIT on the French model, where we include not only spouses, but also take into account all children. That is, the more children, the lower the taxes will be. This is the promotion of having many children
, this is the appreciation of large families, 3+ families, who will not pay any income tax under such a system,” PSL President Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz presented his idea.
The Third Way is also betting on green energy. – Poland must be a country powered not by Russian, Mongolian or Colombian coal, but by Polish wind, Polish sun. It needs to be a country that is associated with green, good breath, and not with the mass cutting of trees blindly and exporting them to China. That’s why we will allow people to buy electricity directly from private energy producers from Polish wind and Polish solar. It will be as simple as shopping online. And equally beneficial for the household budget,” argues party leader Szymon Holownia. The party is also betting on the construction of biogas plants.
The Classical Left
The New Left is a strictly leftist grouping in both economic and social areas. It derives from the post-communist left, which has joined forces with the modern European left. It advocates a strong state presence in the economy and an extensive social system. On worldview issues, it advocates expanded rights for the LGBT community, strong liberalization of abortion rights, and strong separation of church and state. The party’s program includes a shorter work week and extended vacations. The party wants a minimum hourly wage for interships, as well as payment of full wages in the event of sick leave instead of the current 80 percent. It demands the abolition of part-time (so-called “junk”) contracts with employees and their replacement with full-time contracts with insurance. The party calls for a gradual shortening of the work week. It wants to introduce a 35-hour work week and a 35-day vacation in the future.
The Confederation – the party of the young
The Confederation is a party that enjoys the support of mostly young voters, especially men. It offers a libertarian program friendly to private enterprise. It wants to limit the state’s power over the economy and radically reduce taxes. It is a party considered anti-establishment. In her campaign, she raises criticism of Poland’s over-involvement in the war in Ukraine, advocating support for Ukraine, which should, however, serve Polish interests first and foremost. She criticizes social aid for Ukrainians living in Poland, as well as generally increasing state budget expenditures and excessive social assistance in the country. On social issues, she is conservative. In EU politics, it is skeptical of “Brussels bureaucracy” and “the restriction of Poland’s sovereignty by EU bodies.” The party was skeptical of restrictions related to the fight against Covid. In its view, the lockdowns have led to the bankruptcy of many Polish companies, huge state expenditures and a large number of excess deaths unrelated to Covid. The Confederation wants PiS out of power, but is also critical of the rest of the opposition parties, so it is likely to be a key piece of the government’s post-election puzzle.
Conclusion
The campaign ahead of the Parliamentary elections, to be held on 15th of October, has entered a crucial phase. Both those in power and the opposition stress that these are the most important parliamentary elections since 1989. A victory for PiS will mean a continuation of current policies and a further consolidation of the current government camp’s power over Polish public institutions such as the courts and the media. The opposition’s victory, on the other hand, will mean a desire for radical change, especially in the areas of the judiciary, the media, relations with the European Union, and holding the current government accountable. Poles electoral preferences are quite crystallized and have not changed radically for a long time. However, the final outcome of the election, which will produce a government majority, is not certain, and much depends on the election campaign, mobilization of one’s own electorate and the votes of undecideds, whose number is estimated at about 10 percent of those intending to vote. The most likely scenario is that PiS and the 3 opposition groups will win a similar number of seats. Key, then, to forming a government majority will be the Confederation’s attitude.
[i] Analysis of Marcin Pallade, public opinions polls expert https://twitter.com/MarcinPalade/status/1701844148762952178
[ii] TVN24 Business TV Portal https://tvn24.pl/biznes/z-kraju/obietnice-wyborcze-pis-ko-trzeciej-drogi-i-lewicy-podatki-urlopy-zakaz-handlu-emerytury-7337960
[iii] The economic portal BusinessInsider.com.pl https://businessinsider.com.pl/gospodarka/lista-najwazniejszych-obietnic-na-wybory-od-pis-po-lewicy-i-trzeciej-drogi/gcvrpng
[iv] The portal of the Daily Gazeta Prawna https://www.gazetaprawna.pl/wiadomosci/kraj/artykuly/9293766,kampanijna-super-sobota-porownanie-programow-ko-i-pis.html