Weekly Briefing, Vol. 64. No. 1 (SK) July 2023
Political situation in Slovakia before snap elections
Summary
The political situation in Slovakia before summer is quite calm. Calmer than it was expected, especially, due to the fact that the snap election will be soon. Despite of it, it is interesting to follow the campaign of the political parties and how the situation has been changing regarding their support. Besides, the announcement of the incumbent president, Zuzana Čaputová, not to run for the re-election in 2024 could be a game changer, too.
Polls show that Fico’s Smer-SD is losing support, but remains top. The latest polls found that Smer-SD would come first in the elections, with 19.6 percent. In May, the polling agencies measured popular support for Smer-SD more than 21 percent.
Zuzana Čaputová, who was elected in 2019, says she does not have the strength to run for president a second time. It was one of the most difficult decisions that she had to make, mainly because of the several crises that Slovakia has found itself in.
Introduction
It’s campaigning time in Slovakia. Politicians who aspire to lead the country will soon start making the rounds of summer festivals, swimming pools, and outdoor halušky- and goulash-cooking competitions. They have been bracing for the heat of a political summer since learning that, for the first time in 20 years, Slovakia’s parliamentary elections will take place in September 2023.
Slovak President Zuzana Čaputová announced she wouldn’t stand for re-election next year. She described it as a difficult personal decision. Former lawyer and activist Čaputová was elected amid political instability following the murder of investigative journalist Jan Kuciak and his fiancé Martina Kušnírová in 2018 and the ensuing protests which brought down populist Prime Minister Robert Fico, who was blamed for allowing, if not enabling, business interests to capture the police and judiciary.
Election campaign and the announcement of President Čaputová
Slovak election campaign starts with small parties risking vote waste. As the window to merge in Slovakia’s September snap election closed on June 9, 2023, at least five political parties are straining to secure a 5 percent quorum and risk becoming wasted votes.
The ability of pro-Western forces to form a government after September hinges on smaller parties surpassing the 5 percent election quorum. A May poll shows five parties hover between 4-5.5 percent. Additionally, Democrats, the party of ex-prime minister Eduard Heger is also polling at 3.2 percent. Sme Rodina party of house speaker Boris Kollár is also at an insecure 6.6 percent. Despite calls to join efforts and prevent vote wasting, the parties are primarily confident at going it alone. Various smaller parties polling below 3 percent could also further dilute votes. Among them is Modrí of former Prime Minister Mikuláš Dzurinda, who first joined Democrats only to leave a few weeks later.
In Slovakia’s recent memory is a 2020 merger-related voting fiasco. Progressive Slovakia (Renew Europe) and Spolu (now Democrats, EPP) chose not to move forward with the party-renaming practice and created an official electoral coalition. This meant a higher, 7% quorum, which despite polling high, the coalition missed out on by less than a thousand votes. The parties did not get into parliament and over 200,000 votes were wasted. The only remaining way for parties to join ranks is for one party’s candidates to run under the name of another. The deadline for candidate lists is July 2, 2023.
Polls for September’s snap election have the former PM and populist Robert Fico’s party in the lead. Hoping to continue the momentum, Fico and his allies are disseminating disinformation and sowing confusion in Slovak society, following many well-known Russian narratives. In the latest of his attacks against the “elites” in Bratislava and Brussels, Slovakia’s populist, former PM Robert Fico accused NATO of allegedly launching a campaign in Slovakia to “turn” the electorate of his Smer-SD party ahead of the 30 September early elections. Fico went further to say NATO was being aided by Slovak President Zuzana Čaputová and the former cabinet members of Eduard Heger’s administration.
The election campaign in Slovakia officially began on June 9, 2023, but some of the billboards had been seen well ahead of the time. While some parties are promising lower prices, others have gone for respectability. Political leaders stare at voters from billboards ahead of the parliamentary snap elections, but, for example, Smer-SD leader Robert Fico surprisingly does not. On the other side the far-right party ĽSNS, led by the convicted politician Marian Kotleba, decided to use the LGBT+ community as its topic on the billboards. LGBT+ organizations have filed a criminal complaint against the party. In 2019, Kotleba used the LGBT+ community for his billboards in the presidential race. Back then, the community turned to the police as well.
A new campaign aimed at young voters to prompt them to participate in the September snap election has also been launched. Called “Chcem tu zostať” (I Want to Stay Here), the initiative will tour festivals, concerts and other events during the summer. Voter participation in elections is the key to the quality of democracy. Civil society in Slovakia has demonstrated its ability to mobilize several times in the past, especially among young voters.
The campaign continues this tradition with the aim of spreading a positive message about the country. It connects hundreds of actors from the non-governmental sector with young influencers to jointly inspire young people to get involved in public events. In Slovakia, young voters aged 18 to 25 make up almost half a million voters.
However, according to some polling agencies’ surveys carried out for the campaign, 52 percent of young people are interested in voting. Compared to late 2019, this is a decrease of 16 percentage points. This could mean up to a three percent difference when it comes to results, which might be important when looking at recent polls.
According to several previous surveys, young voters do not see their future in Slovakia positively, their sense of resignation deeper as their motivation to go abroad increases. The main initiators of the campaign are Občianska Platforma pre Demokraciu (Civic Platform for Democracy), Memo 98, Nadácia Otvorenej Spoločnosti (Open Society Foundation) and the Pontis Foundation. Dozens of non-governmental organizations also participate. The ambassadors of the campaign are former prime minister Iveta Radičová, influencer Veronika Cifrová Ostrihoňová and former ice-hockey player Michal Handzuš.
Besides the election campaign there is one more important fact what can influence the snap elections. Slovak president Čaputová will not seek second term in election next year. The former human rights lawyer won her first five-year term in 2019 and has been a strong voice in favor of European integration, minority rights and a supporter of neighboring Ukraine in its defense against Russia.
Her decision not to run, does not mean that she is giving up the ideal and trust in values that she has dedicated her professional and personal life. Čaputová tried to help democracy and justice in Slovakia before her presidential mandate, during it, and she will do so after.
Čaputová’s announcement may prompt other potential candidates to declare they will run. So far, several largely fringe figures have declared interest. Slovak presidents do not wield many executive powers, but have a strong role in forming governments and shaping public debate.
President Čaputová is the most popular Slovak politician, with a confidence rating of 42.9 percent, ahead of opposition leader Peter Pellegrini at 36.3 percent, according to several polls. Čaputová has frequently been criticized for her liberal stance by opposition leader and former prime minister Robert Fico, who has claimed, without proof, she was a U.S. puppet and stood for interests of U.S. financier George Soros. She would take legal action against Fico, whose Smer-SD party leads opinion polls, for what she called lies. She has said that both she and her family have been a target of death threats.
Conclusion
The campaigning for Slovakia’s September snap election has officially started, and the time for parties to join ranks using a popular practice of renaming a party under a joint name ran out on June 9, 2023. The experts did not foresee big mergers anymore, which unfortunately could mean big vote wasting.
A significant shift in foreign policy is on the table after the election. Leading the polls is Smer-SD party, carrying a history of corruption investigations. Smer-SD is promising to stop sending arms to Ukraine, introduce a Russia-style foreign agent NGO law and accuse NATO of election meddling.
Čaputová was elected in 2019 and has continuously been Slovakia’s most trusted politician, although her popularity dwindled a little in the latter part of her mandate and following her appointment of a technocratic cabinet in response to the country’s protracted political crisis. Čaputová personified the change in Slovak politics, but she found herself in the middle of another political crisis when disputes in the new government between cabinet members Richard Sulík (SaS) and Igor Matovič (OĽaNO) culminated in the fall of Eduard Heger’s cabinet late last year.
Fico’s inflammatory rhetoric and derogatory comments directed at President Čaputová are widely speculated to be behind Čaputová’s decision not to run.
References
Dlhopolec, P. (2023): Slovak president will not run for office again in 2024. Available at: https://spectator.sme.sk/c/23184560/zuzana-caputova-slovak-president-run-for-president-2024.html
Jakubčo, J. (2023): Stop to liberalism and respectable future: Politicians’ election promises hit billboards. Available at: https://spectator.sme.sk/c/23182563/stop-to-liberalism-and-respectable-future-politicians-election-promises-hit-billboards.html
Lopatka, J. (2023): Slovak president Caputova will not seek second term in election next year. Available at: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/slovak-president-caputova-will-not-seek-second-term-election-next-year-2023-06-20
Sybera, A. (2023): Populist Strongman Fico Usurps the Narrative in Slovakia. Available at: https://visegradinsight.eu/populist-strongman-fico-usurps-the-narrative-in-slovakia/
Sybera, A. (2023): Slovak president says she won’t stand for re-election. Available at: https://www.intellinews.com/slovak-president-says-she-won-t-stand-for-re-election-282309/
The Guardian (2023): Slovakian president Čaputová says she will not run for re-election. Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/20/slovakia-president-zuzana-caputova-says-she-will-not-run-for-re-election
Vančo, M. (2023): Poll shows Fico’s Smer is losing support, but remains top. Available at: https://spectator.sme.sk/c/23182881/poll-shows-ficos-smer-is-losing-support-but-remains-top.html
Zmušková, B. (2023): Slovak election campaign starts with small parties risking vote waste. Available at: https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/slovak-election-campaign-starts-with-small-parties-risking-vote-waste/