Weekly Briefing, Vol. 60. No. 4 (LT) March 2023
Implications to Nordic and Baltic regions of Finland and Sweden becoming NATO members
Summary
After Finland formally joins NATO at the beginning of April, the security situation in the Nordic and Baltic regions is set to change dramatically. With Sweden almost certainly going to follow suit, the whole region will be fully aligned militarily, the Baltic Sea could be considered as NATO lake, and the Alliance would be able to diversify, re-plan and improve the Nordic and Baltic defences. Due to geographical situation, the defence of the three Baltic States would be relatively hard to defend in case it is attacked. In particular, the Anti-Access/Area-Denial bubble around the Kaliningrad Oblast as well as the narrow Suwalki Corridor present unique challenges of defending the Baltic region. However, once the Nordic region is fully integrated in NATO’s defence network, it will be much easier to send timely NATO reinforcements across the Baltic Sea into the Baltic States, should the need arise. It is a significant geopolitical victory for Lithuania and the neighbouring countries.
Introduction
On 31 March 2023 Turkey ratified Finland’s NATO accession, and on the 4th of April Finland formally joined the Alliance. Sweden will almost certainly follow suit after it clears a few remaining hurdles with Hungary and Turkey. This is the best geopolitical present to Lithuania and the other two Baltic States which on the 10th of March celebrated the 19th anniversary of NATO membership. With both Scandinavian countries joining the Alliance, the Baltic Sea is set to become NATO lake, and the countries in the region have all drastically increased their military spending and capabilities. All this has profound implications for the Baltic region’s security. The briefing highlights the recent revival of NATO’s importance in the wake of Russia’s war in Ukraine. This briefing overviews why the defence of the Baltic States is considered to be rather complicated and how the joining of Finland and Sweden to the Alliance will help to overcome these difficulties.
The Renaissance of NATO
There was a time when NATO was stagnating with its members disagreeing about its strategic goals and direction. Back in 2018 then US President Donald Trump scolded European NATO members for their lack of military spending, blamed Germany for being overly dependent on Russia’s natural gas, and questioned the value of NATO. [[1]] And in 2019 the French President Emmanuel Macron declared NATO was becoming “brain-dead” and that Europe could “no longer rely on America to defend NATO allies.” [[2]]
However, the war in Ukraine has changed everything. After witnessing what has happened to Ukraine – a sovereign and peaceful country – nobody is questioning the value of belonging to the defensive military alliance. On the contrary, now the Alliance seems to be ever-strong, united and dynamic. Members have significantly increased their military spending as proportion of their GDPs, modernize and expand their military capabilities faster as ever. Finland has just formally become a member, and Sweden is likely to do it soon.
NATO, as an organization as a whole, as well as individual NATO countries, help Ukraine to defend its sovereignty. Lithuanian PM Ingrida Šimonytė says that only further strengthening of NATO can ensure stability and peace in the whole Euro-atlantic region. NATO members must strengthen the defensive capabilities of its frontiers, increase deterrence capabilities, keep increasing military spending and keep the doors open for new potential members that share the values of the Alliance. [[3]] All the things mentioned by I. Šimonytė have started materialize at an increasing pace.
Lithuania will be hosting a NATO Summit in Vilnius on 11-12 July 2023, which some predict will have some significant decisions which will further rejuvenate the Alliance.
The difficult defence of the Baltic States
Military analysts for many years have pointed out that defending the Baltic States (meaning Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia) would be an extremely difficult operation, should Russia decide to attack and invade it. Comparing military capabilities of Russia to those of the Baltic States, it is clear that the three small countries would have little chance of withstanding an attack for a long time. Therefore, a swift NATO military help, in terms of transferring military equipment and personnel would be needed. Such transfer should ideally begin before a significant part of the territory is lost because defending a territory is somewhat easier and less costly in terms of personnel and equipment losses than trying to retake it. Once significant NATO forces arrive in the area and help with the defensive operations, it would be very difficult and costly for the potential attacker to advance forward. Russia knows all of it, and therefore, should they ever decide to attack, they would try and exploit two geographical traits in order to prevent prompt arrival of NATO reinforcements.
The first one is the so-called Suwalki Gap, or Suwalki Corridor (See Map 1). It is the border between Lithuania and Poland which has become of “great strategic and military importance since” after Poland and the Baltic States have joined NATO. This narrow border, stretching about 80 km in a straight line, runs from Kaliningrad Oblast (Russian territory) to Belarus (ruled by pro-Russian Lukashenko regime) and is the only land route connecting the Baltic States to the rest of NATO. Should this stretch of land be captured, or access to it denied, it would jeopardize NATO’s attempts to send in the military help in the region, if needed. In July 2022 the Politico newspaper named the Suwalki Gap “the most dangerous place on Earth” because “the area would likely be one of the Russian president’s first targets were he ever to choose to escalate the war in Ukraine into a kinetic confrontation with NATO.” [[4]]
Map 1 – the Suwalki Gap (the Suwalki Corridor) [[5]]
The second geographical trait that gives assymetrical military advantage to Russia is Kaliningrad Oblast, the Russian exclave sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania. (See Map 1). “The process of re-militarization that was initiated after 2009, resulted in transformation of the area into Russia’s Anti-Access/Area-Denial (A2/AD) zone.” [[6]] “anti-access refers to those actions and capabilities, usually long-range, designed to prevent an opposing force from entering an operational area. Area denial refers to those actions and capabilities, usually of shorter range, designed to limit an opposing force’s freedom of action within the operational area.” [[7]] The “bubble” of Kaliningrad’s A2/AD zone could stretch as far as 500 kilometers from the borders of Kaliningrad and completely cover big swathes of the Baltic Sea and the Baltic States (See Map 2) which could disrupt the movement of NATO’s forces and seriously hinder the defence of the Baltic States.
Map 2: Kaliningrad Oblast and its A2/AD capabilities [[8]]
Importance of Finland and Sweden becoming a NATO member
Finland and Sweden, the two countries that have pursued a policy of neutrality for centuries, are now expected to fully align with NATO. On the day when Finland formally became a member of NATO Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda stated that „Finland’s formal accession to NATO reinforces the security of the Baltic Sea region and the entire Eastern flank of the alliance.“ [[9]] Finland formally becoming a NATO member is a sign that the process of Sweden becoming a NATO member is almost certainly set to succeed, too. Without Sweden, the security of the region is not complete. “Celebrations are not final yet. We are waiting for the 32nd flag to be hoisted alongside the 31st flag,” [[10]] Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said, referring to Sweden that is expected to become the 32nd member of the Alliance.
As far as Lithuania and the other two Baltic States are concerned, it is hard to overestimate the importance of Finland and Sweden becoming a NATO member. First of all, a region being fully aligned to each other and obliged to help each in case of an attack on any of them, provides much bigger deterrence to a potential enemy, hence a much bigger chance to avoid any military operations altogether. With the two new members, the Alliance would be able to re-plan the Nordic and Baltic defences with more diverse options for defence in the region. [[11]]
However, should deterrence fail and any of the countries in the region is attacked, the importance of Finland and Sweden will be crucial. Geographical proximity means that in the event of any emergencies in the Baltic States, the Scandinavian countries would be one of the first allies rushing in for help. As mentioned earlier, the Baltic States are a relatively vulnerable region in the Alliance because of A2/AD capabilities of Kaliningrad as well as Suwalki Corridor. New members Finland and Sweden would partially help to solve both problems. In the event of war, with Baltic Sea essentially becoming a NATO lake, Russian ships would not be able to freely maneuver in it and block the arrival of NATO reinforcements. NATO military help could flow from Sweden across the NATO-controlled Baltic Sea to the Baltic States, both by ships and planes, bypassing Kaliningrad’s A2/AD zone. The route across the sea also diminishes the importance of Suwalki Corridor because the latter would no longer be the only route available to receive military help.
Finally, there are also peace-time advantages of having Finland and Sweden in NATO family. Once the two countries join the Alliance, all of the Nordic countries and the Baltic countries will be NATO members, which means that the region “can advocate together for issues important to them within the Alliance” [[12]], the region as a whole will carry a bigger weight within NATO, and will have better opportunities to get their agenda through.
Conclusion
Finland and Sweden, after pursuing pacifist and neutral policies for centuries, and now becoming members of NATO is another proof of how quickly countries may respond to fundamental security situation changes. This all is a significant geopolitical victory for Lithuania and the neighbouring countries. Now the Nordic and Baltic regions will be fully aligned, better defended, and have stronger deterrence to any potential attackers. However, there is still a lot of preparation, planning and investment needed before the military vulnerabilities of the Baltic States could be truly overcome. But this week’s developments are a crucial part of this process to achieve it.
[1] AP NEWS: The Latest: Trump questions value of NATO, slams Germany, at: https://apnews.com/article/moscow-music-north-america-donald-trump-ap-top-news-5d9af207650e42cd9fbf96ce7d8c59d1
[2] THE ECONOMIST: Emmanuel Macron warns Europe: NATO is becoming brain-dead, at: https://www.economist.com/europe/2019/11/07/emmanuel-macron-warns-europe-nato-is-becoming-brain-dead
[3] DELFI: Šimonytė: geriausia, ką galime duoti NATO – pasiryžimas toliau stiprinti Aljansą, at: https://www.delfi.lt/news/daily/lithuania/simonyte-geriausia-ka-galime-duoti-nato-pasiryzimas-toliau-stiprinti-aljansa.d?id=92931843#cxrecs_s
[4] POLITICO: The Most Dangerous Place on Earth, at:
https://www.politico.eu/article/suwalki-gap-russia-war-nato-lithuania-poland-border/
[5] THE SUN: Will WW3 Start Here? How a tiny 60-mile stretch of land in central Europe known as the Suwalki Gap could spark a nuclear apocalypse, at: https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2130852/suwalki-gap-tiny-corridor-of-nato-land-in-eastern-europe-is-where-world-war-three-will-erupt-unless-russian-aggression-is-curbed/
[6] SCANDINAVION JOURNAL OF MILITARY STUDIES: David vs. Goliath: Kaliningrad Oblast as Russia’s A2/AD ‘Bubble’, at: https://sjms.nu/articles/10.31374/sjms.20
[7] WIKIPEDIA: Anti-access/area denial, at: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-access/area_denial
[8] SEMANTIC SCHOLAR, The Suwalki Gap, at: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/The-Suwalki-Gap-%3A-NATO’s-fragile-hot-spot-Elak-%C5%9Aliwa/78538060674f219089f4745477f52be383c9d882/figure/1
[9] LRT: Finland’s NATO membership reinforces Baltic security, says Lithuanian president, at: https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/1956008/finland-s-nato-membership-reinforces-baltic-security-says-lithuanian-president#:~:text=Finland’s%20formal%20accession%20to%20NATO,31st%20member%20of%20the%20alliance.
[10] Ibid.
[11] LRT: What would Sweden and Finland joining NATO mean for the Baltics? at: https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/1685454/what-would-sweden-and-finland-joining-nato-mean-for-the-baltics#:~:text=Joining%20would%20not%20only%20strengthen,greater%20deterrent%20against%20Russian%20aggression.
[12] FINNISH GOVERNMENT: Finland and NATO, at: https://valtioneuvosto.fi/en/finland-and-nato#:~:text=Finland%20becomes%20a%20Member%20of,Sea%20region%20and%20Northern%20Europe.