Weekly Briefing, Vol. 55. No. 4 (BG) October 2022
Poland’s foreign policy in a time of geopolitical tensions
Summary
Polish foreign policy since the outbreak of war in Ukraine and the rise in geopolitical tensions has meant that Poland has been more active on the international stage, especially in the security area. Poland is among the countries most strongly supporting Ukraine and calling for the isolation of Russia and tighter sanctions on the country. The outbreak of the war has brought Poland closer to the United States, especially in the area of military cooperation, but also in the area of energy, after a period of initial cool relations from the Polish government with the new Joe Biden administration. Poland’s relations with the European Commission over the non-payment to Poland of funds from the EU Reconstruction Fund remain tense. The Polish government has also decided to raise the issue of reparations from Germany for losses suffered by Poland during World War II, which many commentators believe is related to strained relations with Brussels. In the context of the war in Ukraine, it is also worth noting the changes in Poland’s relations with its former strategic ally Hungary and the emergence of a new – significant Polish partner in the military and energy areas – South Korea.
Introduction
From Poland’s point of view, in the area of security, relations with the United States are strategic, while in economic matters with Germany, which is Poland’s main economic partner. Russia is considered the biggest threat in security matters. The war in Ukraine and the increase in geopolitical tensions in the world have caused Poland to consistently strengthen its strategic relations with the United States, Ukraine and the countries of the Central and Eastern European region, being a NATO front country. It is also trying to emphasize its subjectivity in the European Union, mainly vis-à-vis Germany, which, however, involves tensions with the European Commission and Germany. Poland is also reevaluating relations with Hungary and developing them with South Korea. It also invariably maintains friendly relations with China.
Support for Ukraine
Poland’s attitude to the escalation of the situation in Ukraine is expressed by Pawel Soloch, head of the Polish National Security Bureau (BBN). Russia must lose the war and recognize Ukraine within its pre-2014 borders, he said at the Warsaw Security Forum. He called for further aid to Ukraine and the imposition of more sanctions on Russia. – Russia must lose the war and agree to return Ukraine to its pre-2014 constitutional borders. Comprehensive support for Ukraine on its path to victory should be a priority for us,” said Pawel Soloch.[i] – Only after the full victory of Ukraine should we reflect on Russia’s place in the security architecture,” he noted.
In an exaltation of Russia’s actions in Ukraine, the Polish Senate (the upper house of parliament) passed a resolution declaring the authorities of the Russian Federation a terrorist regime. The resolution also calls on the international community to support the International Criminal Court investigating those responsible for crimes in Ukraine.[ii]
Also President Andrzej Duda spoke of support for Ukraine during the UN General Assembly in New York, where he met with US President Joe Biden, among others. [iii] Concluding his visit to the U.S., the Polish President expressed hope that the American military presence in Poland will strengthen, and that support for Ukraine will continue. – Stopping Russia’s recurring imperial tendency, maintaining Ukraine’s internationally recognized borders, and therefore Ukraine’s recapture of lands occupied by Russia, this is the foundation of the future architecture of peace; if this succeeds, and we are doing everything to succeed, our security will certainly increase, the security of all of central Europe will increase, he stressed. [iv]
Andrzej Duda also visited three African countries in September – Nigeria, Ivory Coast and Senegal – where he said Kremlin disinformation should be “combated” in the context of the war in Ukraine. Andrzej Duda with the presidents of African countries discussed Ukraine, raw materials and food issues.[v]
Expanding military and energy cooperation with the US
The outbreak of war in Ukraine has intensified Poland’s cooperation with the United States. As early as April 5, Poland signed an agreement to supply Poland with 250 Abrams tanks of the latest version for about $4.75 billion. The head of the Ministry of National Defense, Mariusz Blaszczak, also announced that later this year the US military will transfer 28 tanks to Poland for training purposes. Deliveries of all tanks are scheduled for 2025-26. [vi] In previous years, Poland has bought more than a billion euros from the Americans for F-35 aircraft, more than 200 million euros for the Patriot anti-missile system and nearly 100 million euros for Himars artillery. [vii]
In September, $288.6 million was allocated by the U.S. Congress for Poland as part of Foreign Military Assistance. As explained by the U.S. Embassy in Warsaw, the aim is to strengthen Poland’s ability to “deter and defend” against the increased threat from Russia. [viii] The USD 288.6 million, according to the United States, will “speed up the process of replenishing the (military) equipment that Poland has managed to transfer from its own stockpile” to Kiev. This includes tanks. Poland is the 2rd supplier of military equipment to Ukraine after the US.[ix]
The Americans are also likely to build Poland’s first nuclear power plant. According to Polish politicians, there is a “very good chance” that it will be the American company Westinghouse, and the contract is expected to be signed in November. The Polish plan is to begin construction of the first of two nuclear power plants in 2026 and commission the first of the plant’s three reactors in 2033, enough to power 4 million households.
Relations with the Union still strained
The Polish government’s long-running conflict with the European Commission over the disbursement of billions of euros from the EU Reconstruction Fund (24 billion euros in grants and euro bilion euros in loans from the EU’s post-pandemic economic recovery fund) continues, despite the fact that the Commission has approved Poland’s National Reconstruction Plan, which formally allows the disbursement. However, the European Commission points out that the Polish government has not fulfilled all the conditions for unblocking the funds related to restoring the independence of the Polish judiciary from power. The Polish government has a different opinion. There are also media reports saying that the Polish government’s failure to take further action in the context of the changes in the Polish judiciary, expected by Brussels, could lead to the blocking of the disbursement from standard, EU budget funds from current programs of up to 75 billion euros, which would be a huge blow to the Polish budget and finances. The Polish government describes the information as untrue [x]
The situation of worsening conflict with the European Commission is leading Polish leaders to sharpen their rhetoric toward Germany. They regard Germany as a country that dominates EU institutions. The chairman of Poland’s ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party, Jaroslaw Kaczyński, said at the Economic Forum in Karpacz that “in the European Union there is a principle: whoever is stronger is better.” – And since Germany is the strongest, the old German concept, a concept that today can be called neo-imperial, is functioning,” he assessed.[xi] According to the Law and Justice chairman, like Germany’s historical approach to Central and Eastern Europe, it assumed that “there would be an independent Poland, only it would be a Poland completely subordinated to Germany, and on top of that, a Poland that would be guarded so that it would not accidentally develop to the German level, so that it would not catch up with Germany.” – And this, one can say, is being implemented at the moment,” he added. Jaroslaw Kaczynski also spoke of the “cultural foreignness of Western Europe” compared to Poland in moral matters.
Reparations from Germany for losses in World War II
On September 1st, the 83rd anniversary of Germany’s aggression against Poland, which marked the beginning of World War II in Europe, Polish authorities announced a report on war losses caused by Germany in occupied Poland in 1939-1945[xii]. They also presented a special diplomatic note to Germany on the payment of compensation. The report values Polish war losses at about 1.3 trillion euros. This is the first such report in Poland’s post-war history. However, Germany considers the reparations issue closed. Most lawyers and experts believe that there is no longer any legal basis for demanding reparations from Germany, but according to some, the decisions of the authorities of the Communist People’s Republic of Poland (the PRL) to renounce reparations were non-sovereign, taken under pressure from the Soviet Union, and taken defectively, even according to the law of the time.
Development of cooperation with South Korea
South Korea, along with the United States, is becoming an important Polish partner in matters of military and energy cooperation. In the context of the war in Ukraine, Poland is significantly increasing its defense spending. Minister of National Defense Mariusz Blaszczak has signed agreements for the purchase of armaments from South Korea. These include FA-50 light fighters, (48 units) K2 tanks (about 1,000) and K9 self-propelled howitzers (600). The order is to be implemented in stages in phases. The cost of the deal may amount to 14 billion euros [xiii] . Media reports also indicate that Poland will soon sign a letter of intent for the construction of nuclear reactors by the South Korean consortium KHNP. The Koreans promise Poland, among other things, nuclear technology transfer and a low price.[xiv]
Reevaluating the strategic partnership with Hungary
The war in Ukraine has also reevaluated Polish-Hungarian relations. Until the conflict broke out, the two countries were strategic allies on policy issues within the European Union, supporting each other. However, a different approach to the war in Ukraine has shattered this solidarity. Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki assessed in September that the “attitude to the war” in Ukraine had severely divided the Visegrad Group (Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia). However, he announced that he wants to work out a formula in which “we can return both to cooperation within the V4 and to joint actions with Hungary in those areas where we share values and interests.”[xv]As recently as late July, the Head of the Polish government said that “the paths of Poland and Hungary have diverged.” Morawiecki answered yes when asked if he confirmed the words of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who said on July that the war in Ukraine had shaken up Polish-Hungarian cooperation, the axis of the Visegrad Group. Orban also assessed that the goals of the two countries are the same, but “the problem is on the side of the heart,” because while Hungarians look at the conflict as a war between two Slavic nations, Poles “feel that they themselves are also fighting in it.” However, it seems that despite their differences in eastern politics, Poland and Hungary will continue to be united in their approach to EU policy.
Conclusion
The war in Ukraine has posed many new challenges for Poland, particularly in the security and energy sectors. Since then, there has been a significant involvement of the country in supporting Ukraine in military action against Russia and increasing cooperation with the United States in the areas of security and energy. On the other hand, Poland’s strained relations with the European Union persist, which has projected a tightening of Polish-German relations. However, they do not seem to translate into mutual economic relations, but are rather an expression of German politics, rekindled historical pasts and “political gamesmanship.”
[i] The Office of the President of the Republic of Poland https://www.prezydent.pl/aktualnosci/biuro-bezpieczenstwa-narodowego/aktualnosci/szef-bbn-rosja-musi-przegrac-wojne-i-uznac-ukraine-w-granicach-sprzed-2014-r,59481
[ii] News portal Onet.pl https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/senat-rp-uznal-rosje-za-rezim-terrorystyczny-jest-reakcja-zelenskiego/p1y1k48,79cfc278
[iii] The Office of the President of the Republic of Poland https://www.prezydent.pl/aktualnosci/wizyty-zagraniczne/77-sesja-zgromadzenia-ogolnego-onz,58814
[iv] The Office of the President of the Republic of Poland https://www.prezydent.pl/aktualnosci/wizyty-zagraniczne/prezydent-podsumowal-wizyte-w-nowym-jorku,59089
[v] The Polish Radio https://polskieradio24.pl/5/1223/artykul/3034099,prezydent-andrzej-duda-podsumowal-wizyte-w-afryce-zachod-musi-widziec-w-niej-partnera
[vi] The Polish Radio https://polskieradio24.pl/5/1223/artykul/2943345,amerykanski-sprzet-dla-polskiej-armii-szef-mon-rozmawia-o-zakupie-uzbrojenia
[vii] The InteriaBiznes Portal https://biznes.gazetaprawna.pl/artykuly/8346642,7-mld-zl-na-uzbrojenie-dla-firm-z-usa.html
[viii] The Polsat News TV https://www.polsatnews.pl/wiadomosc/2022-09-29/niemal-290-milionow-dolarow-z-usa-dla-polski/
[ix] The Economic Portal Forsal.pl https://forsal.pl/swiat/bezpieczenstwo/artykuly/8523202,dostawy-broni-dla-ukrainy-dla-ukrainy-polska-niemcy.html
[x] The Economic portal Money.pl https://www.money.pl/gospodarka/nieprawdziwe-informacje-rzad-o-doniesieniach-ws-blokady-srodkow-z-ue-6823979695037248a.html
[xi] The TV TVN24 Portal https://tvn24.pl/polska/jaroslaw-kaczynski-o-obcosci-kulturowej-poczulem-ja-kiedy-pierwszy-raz-bylem-na-zachodzie-w-wiedniu-tam-rozne-rzeczy-zobaczylem-6101798
[xii] The report on war losses https://straty-wojenne.pl/
[xiii] The Economic portal Money.pl https://www.money.pl/gospodarka/mon-polska-kupi-czolgi-samoloty-i-armatohaubice-z-korei-poludniowej-6793175809588064a.html
[xiv] The Economic portal BusinessInsider.com.pl https://businessinsider.com.pl/gospodarka/umowy-o-atomie-najpierw-korea-potem-usa/db80dd5
[xv] The TV TVN24 Portal https://tvn24.pl/polska/mateusz-morawiecki-o-stosunkach-polski-i-wegier-oraz-grupie-wyszehradzkiej-premier-chce-wrocic-do-wspolnych-dzialan-z-wegrami-6097258