Weekly Briefing, Vol. 53. No. 4 (BH) July 2022
BiH, Bosniaks, Serbs and Turkey: Brotherhood and interests
Summary
On the Day of Democracy and National Unity – as July 15 is officially called in the Republic of Turkey, a message from the leader of the Democratic Action Party, Bakir Izetbegović, was sent from Bosnia and Herzegovina to Turkey. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was best man on religious wedding ceremony of his daughter. The day was also marked by an appropriate program in the predominantly Bosniak region of Sandžak in neighboring Serbia. A month before, Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik went to sanctioned Russia via Istanbul, where he had a cordial meeting with the head of Turkish diplomacy. This event caused negative reactions in Sarajevo. Turkish investments are often talked about with the remark that they are more ideological indoctrination and less economic projects. All this raises a key question: What is Turkey for Bosnia and Herzegovina?
Introduction
On the sixth anniversary of the failed military coup in Turkey, Deputy Speaker of the House of Peoples of the Parliamentary Assembly of BiH and President of the main Bosniak national party – Party of Democratic Action (Stranka demokratske akcije – SDA) Bakir Izetbegović sent a message to the Turkish people and the President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, whom he called a friend and brother on this occasion. Izetbegović emphasized that on that day, which is now celebrated in Turkey as the Day of Democracy and National Unity, the Turkish people and their leader Erdogan managed to defend freedom, democracy and their own value system. He called the organizers of the military coup terrorists who, in their intention to change the government and liquidate the president, were prevented by the bare-handed people. Izetbegović reminded that he supported the Turkish people, the country, the president at a time when many were still calculating, and he still provides that support today[1].
On the City Hall building, the seat of the city administration and a symbol of the city of Sarajevo due to its recognizable architectural style and war suffering, the practice of projecting the national flags of particular countries on the occasions of significant dates and anniversaries was introduced. On July 15, 2022, the flag of the Republic of Turkey was projected on the City Hall. Among those gathered in front of the City Hall was the Ambassador of the Republic of Turkey to BiH, Sadik Babur Girgin, as well as numerous representatives of the embassy, Turkish institutions and citizens[2]. Not far from the Town Hall, in the center of Baščaršija, the old core of Sarajevo built during the Ottoman conquest of Bosnia, a large screen was set up showing the short film “I was there”, which shows the testimonies of students from BiH who were in Turkey on July 15, 2016. The screen was set up by the non-governmental organization Union of International Democrats (UIDBiH) and BiH Association of Turkish Alumni (TUMED)[3]. UIDBiH also organized an action to place billboards in several locations in BiH, with the messages “July 15, victory of the people against terrorism”, “Stop FETO in BiH”, “FETO terrorist organization of Fetullah Gulen”, “15. July Day of Democracy”, and “Do you know the dangers of FETO?”[4].
In Novi Pazar, the the biggest city in Sandžak, a region in Serbia where Bosniaks are the majority and where there are strong cultural and historical ties with Turkey, July 15 was also celebrated, more massively and with a richer content than in Sarajevo. The Consul General of the Republic of Turkey in Novi Pazar, Basar Basol, said that the events of July 15, six years ago, showed the brotherhood between Turks and Bosniaks. He spoke about the common history of the two nations, while the mayor of Novi Pazar, Nihat Biševac, pointed out that on July 15 the Turkish people showed their determination and that this nation has become a symbol in the world of defending democracy in their country[5].
Bakir Izetbegović is the head of the largest Bosniak national party, SDA. As the son of the founder of the party, Alija Izetbegović, who enjoyed sympathy in many the so-called Islamic countries, the younger Izetbegović developed the closest relations with the Turks and their leader, Erdogan. Their presence n relationship was crowned by the fact that Erdogan was the withness at the religious ceremony of the wedding of Izetbegović’s daughter, who got married last year in Sarajevo. Izetbegović then publicly thanked Erdogan for his arrival, confirming his long-standing sincere and fraternal friendship[6]. At that time, on the eve of the wedding, Erdogan also held state meetings in Sarajevo. At that occasion he said that he expected the trade exchange between Turkey and BiH to increase to one billion euros[7].
However, the unquestionably friendly relationship between Izetbegović – who expects to return to office in the BiH Presidency after the October elections – and Erdogan, is called into question by placing it in the overall context of the relationship between the two countries and some other ones. The most common question that is asked is whether economic relations are really at the level they could be or whether BiH is more of a space reserved for the promotion of Turkish hegemony. In this context, parallels are drawn with investments in other countries in the region, and Serbia is most often mentioned. Additionally, again in that triangle of relations between Belgrade – Ankara – Sarajevo, the relationship of the official Ankara towards the Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik is being questioned.
Parallel with Serbia
Criticisms of Izetbegović’s relationship with Erdogan said that their friendly relationship did not bring as much as it could have for BiH. It is a topic that has been discussed in the media for years, and the last serious media research was done by Al Jazeera last December. The journalists of this Qatari media, which has a regional center for the Balkans in Sarajevo, investigated Turkish investments that have increased with the growth of Turkey’s economic power in the past decade, and even more. Cooperation has been especially intensified with BiH and Serbia, and the most important project that is being talked about is the construction of the Sarajevo – Belgrade highway, which would be financed by a Turkish loan and would be built by companies from all three countries[8].
The perception is that Turkey invests much more in Serbia than in “brotherly” BiH. It was reinforced by Erdogan’s own statement that he expects trade with Serbia to grow to five billion euros. Erdogan’s words uttered in Novi Pazar, during the opening of the General Consulate in 2019, were repeated by Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu last month during his visit to Belgrade. He said that Turkish investors in Serbia increased the volume of investments from one million to 300 million dollars in ten years, and thanked the President of Serbia and the Government of this country for the support they provide to Turkish investors[9].
So, the thinking of some is that Turkey’s goal with BiH is one billion euros in trade, and five billion with Serbia, even though Serbia is not five times bigger than BiH. But things are not that simple. When the trade exchange is analyzed through the ratio of imports and exports, the supremacy of Turkey is visible. Namely, Serbia imported goods from Turkey for more than 830 million euros, while it exported goods worth at least 250 million euros[10].
Turkish investments in BiH were mostly realized through the projects of the Turkish Agency for Coordination and Cooperation (TIKA), the Directorate for Endowments and other governmental and non-governmental organizations. According to available analyses, TIKA has invested almost 400 million dollars (342 million euros) in BiH over the past 25 years, and five other state institutions have invested an additional 53 million dollars (45 million euros). Many cultural, educational, historical and religious buildings through which tourism received the most support were built and renovated by the Turks. However, these projects are not shown in statistics as foreign investments, which gives an incomplete picture. The largest Turkish investments in industry are in Lukavac, Maglaj and Goražde in the amount of 305 million euros, and in the banking sector 120 million euros and education 42.5 million euros[11].
Istanbul hugs for Dodik
A factor that in a certain and paradoxical way complicates relations between BiH and Turkey is the extremely cordial and friendly relationship that the representatives of the Republic of Turkey are developing with the leader of the Bosnian Serbs, the current member of the BiH Presidency, Milorad Dodik. In some earlier years, especially when Ahmet Davutoglu was the foreign minister, Dodik was extremely critical of Turkish influence in the Western Balkans. But experienced political wolf D Odik followed Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić in building good relations with Ankara, and in recent years has completely changed his rhetoric[12].
Anyhow, last month, on his way to St. Petersburg where he met with the rather isolated Vladimir Putin, Dodik previously met with Turkish Foreign Minister Cavusoglu in Istanbul. The media in Sarajevo published photos of a warm friendly embrace, with the emphasis that Dodik is a man who denies the genocide against his Turkish Bosniak brothers[13]. Some others criticized official Ankara that by welcoming Dodik with a solemn and friendly welcome, she joined Moscow and Budapest among the rare capitols where Dodik is treated as an important person, and that Turkish pragmatism has turned into dishonor and hypocrisy in this way[14].
From the foreign policy aspect, Dodik revitalized from the Istanbul stage the old idea of a trilateral meeting regarding the future of BiH, at which the presidents of Serbia, Croatia and Turkey, Aleksandar Vučić, Zoran Milanović and Erdogan, would be present as a kind of sponsors for the agreement of representatives of Bosniaks, Croats and Serbs. That idea was launched by Erdogan personally after the meeting with Vučić, but he gave up on that idea after stormy reactions from Sarajevo[15].
Minister Cavusoglu himself reacted to the criticism that followed Dodik’s trip, who two days after the Istanbul meeting with the Serbian member of the BiH Presidency came to Sarajevo for a meeting with the Minister of Foreign Affairs of BiH Bisera Turković and Dodik’s colleague from the BiH Presidency, the Bosniak Šefik Džaferović. After the meeting with Minister Turković, the head of Turkish diplomacy said that the position of official Ankara is clear, that Dodik is a member of the BiH Presidency – whether someone liked him or not. He added that Turkey always expresses the impartiality of its own views. The visit to Sarajevo was part of a Balkan tour of five cities in the region, and Minister Cavusoglu said that Turkey will support any type of negotiation agreement in any format agreed upon by political actors in the country[16].
After the meeting with Minister Cavusoglu, member of the BiH Presidency Džaferović emphasized that Turkey plays a very important role for the Balkans, that it supports the sovereignty and territorial integrity as well as the EU and NATO path of BiH. Also, Turkey, he said, strongly opposes blockades and attacks on reforms in BiH. Turkey, pointed out Džaferović, is a BiH’s friend of that does not ask for anything from BiH and provides all possible support[17].
Conclusion
As the economic power of Turkey grew in the past years and decades, so did its influence in the wider region. The relationship towards the countries of the Western Balkans, including BiH, is burdened with cultural-historical heritage and mythological narratives that are used both for daily political purposes and for the purpose of making enemies. The complex relationship between Turkey and the European Union also breaks through the Balkans. On the other hand, certain politicians like Bakir Izetbegović develop strong friendly relations with Turkish leaders, above all with President Erdogan, which strengthens Izetbegović’s position as a leader of Bosniaks, Turks by religion and some elements of culture close to the people. However, there are also critics who believe that the country does not have much of that love, that is, not as much as it could have. The change in rhetoric towards Turkey by Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik suggests that Bosniaks cannot count on blank support for political and economic projects, especially since Turkey is also developing good relations with its neighbor, Russia, which is close to Serbia. If it used to be true that Turkey is to Bosniaks what Russia is to Serbs, now that formula has been overcome. Turkey will continue to support BiH and cultural projects among Bosniaks, where it will find fertile ground for the spread of its own ideology of anti-Gulenism, commemorating days like the failed military coup, but in economic and state affairs, it will be conducted more with a cool head and common sense.
[1] Izetbegović on the occasion of July 15: I wish my friend and brother Erdogan good health, and the Turkish people peace, freedom and prosperity. https://faktor.ba/vijest/-izetbegovic-povodom-15-jula-prijatelju-i-bratu-erdoganu-zelim-dobro-zdravlje-a-turskom-narodu-mir-slobodu-i-prosperitet/169481
[2] Sarajevo City Hall in the colors of the Turkish flag on the occasion of the anniversary of the July 15 coup attempt. https://www.aa.com.tr/ba/balkan/sarajevska-vije%C4%87nica-u-bojama-zastave-turkiye-povodom-godi%C5%A1njice-poku%C5%A1aja-pu%C4%8Da-15-jula/2638079
[3] Plateau Baščaršija: The film “I was there” was shown about the shocking testimonies of Bosnia and Herzegovina. students about the coup attempt on July 15. https://www.aa.com.tr/ba/balkan/plato-ba%C5%A1%C4%8Dar%C5%A1ije-prikazan-film-bio-sam-tamo-o-potresnim-svjedo%C4%8Denjima-bh-studenata-o-poku%C5%A1aju-pu%C4%8Da-15-jula/2638068
[4] “Stop FETO in Bosnia and Herzegovina”: messages on the occasion of July 15 on led screens throughout Bosnia and Herzegovina. https://www.aa.com.tr/ba/balkan/-stop-feto-u-bih-na-led-ekranima-%C5%A1irom-bih-poruke-povodom-15-jula/2638048
[5] Novi Pazar: Guards for democracy on the occasion of the Day of Democracy and National Unity of Turkey. https://www.aa.com.tr/ba/balkan/novi-pazar-stra%C5%BEe-za-demokratiju-povodom-dana-demokratije-i-nacionalnog-jedinstva-turkiye/2638088
[6] Bakir Izetbegović announced his daughter Jasmine’s wedding, thanked Erdogan and Reis Kavazović. https://www.klix.ba/vijesti/bih/bakir-izetbegovic-se-oglasio-o-svadbi-kcerke-jasmine-zahvalio-se-erdoganu-i-reisu-kavazovicu/210903126
[7] Erdogan: I feel at home in Sarajevo, BiH has a special place in our hearts. https://nova.rs/svet/erdogan-4/
[8] Turkish Investments in the Balkans: Between Statistics and Perception. https://balkans.aljazeera.net/news/economy/2021/9/28/izmedju-statistike-i-percepcije-investicije-i-trgovinska-razmjena-turske-i-balkana
[9] Cavusoglu in Belgrade: Regional cooperation in the foreground, President Erdogan will visit Serbia soon. https://www.aa.com.tr/ba/balkan/cavusoglu-u-beogradu-regionalna-saradnja-u-prvom-planu-predsjednik-erdogan-uskoro-u-posjeti-srbiji/2615272
[10] Turkish Investments in the Balkans: Between Statistics and Perception. https://balkans.aljazeera.net/news/economy/2021/9/28/izmedju-statistike-i-percepcije-investicije-i-trgovinska-razmjena-turske-i-balkana
[11] Ibid.
[12] Relations between Serbia and Turkey have a strong historical dimension, since the Ottoman Empire ruled Serbia for almost five centuries, from 1398 to 1878, and with the Ottomans, Islam came to these areas. a derogatory name for a Bosniaks – “Turks”. This is only a fraction of the insight into the complexity of the relations contributed by the Ottoman Empire in the Balkans.
[13] Turkey’s warm embrace for a genocide denier. https://avaz.ba/vijesti/bih/750808/turski-topli-zagrljaj-za-negatora-genocida
[14] Quo Vadis, Turkey?! https://politicki.ba/politika/quo-vadis-turska/24010
[15] Dodik in Istanbul. Dined in a Bosniak restaurant. “Rehabilitated” ideas about anything and everything. https://politicki.ba/vijesti/dodik-u-istanbulu-objedovao-u-bosnjackom-restoranu-rehabilitirao-ideje-o-svemu-i-svacemu/23986
[16] Cavusoglu: Turkey talks to everyone the same, Dodik is a member of the Presidency whether you like him or not. https://www.klix.ba/vijesti/bih/cavusoglu-turska-sa-svima-razgovara-isto-dodik-je-clan-predsjednistva-voljeli-ga-ili-ne/220618040
[17] Džaferović: Turkey is a sincere friend who does not ask for anything from us, and provides all possible support. https://faktor.ba/vijest/dzaferovic-se-obraca-nakon-sastanka-sa-cavusogluom/166888