Weekly Briefing, Vol. 50. No. 3 (PL) April 2022
The impact of Ukrainian migration on Polish society and economy
Summary
Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Poland has received over 2.8 million refugees from that country (data as of April 19). This is about 7 percent of the population of Poland, which has a population of about 38 million. At the same time, 756,000 Ukrainians – mostly men – left Poland[i]. Poland took in the majority of Ukrainian refugees who left the country as a result of the war. This migration – the largest in Europe since World War II – has had a huge impact on Polish society and economy. Under Polish law, refugees from Ukraine, after obtaining a PESEL identification number, have been granted educational and social rights analogous to Polish citizens. This is a very courageous policy. It is very costly, but it can have a positive impact on Polish society in terms of demographics and labor market shortages, as well as strengthen Poland’s position and image in the region. Ukrainians are a nation culturally related to Poles, so migration does not currently provoke loud objections of the Polish society.
Introduction
Most Ukrainian refugees do not intend to stay in Poland, and only 7 percent of them plan to settle in Poland permanently, according to the report “Refugees from Ukraine in Poland,” prepared by the EWL Migration Platform and the Eastern European Studies at the University of Warsaw[ii]. As soon as possible – meaning after the end of the war – 56 percent of Ukrainians want to return home, but before that happens, they would like to stay in Poland for some time. 18 percent declare that for several years, 6 percent that for about a year. The study involved only people who came to Poland after the outbreak of war in Ukraine. They were asked, among others, about their education, language skills, plans and fears.
Refugees in Poland are mainly educated women with children
The report shows that relatively few respondents are thinking about traveling further west. Only 12 percent of them will go further (or plan to do so). Most – 26% – think of Germany as a potential direction of further emigration, 16% would like to go to the United States, 11% to Great Britain, 10% to Sweden and 8% to Slovakia. – Slovakia. They were followed by Canada (7 percent) and Spain (6 percent).
Statistics show that 93.5 percent of those who fled Ukraine to Poland were women children – this data was confirmed at the points of assigning PESEL identification numbers to refugees, which allow Ukrainian refugees to acquire educational and social rights analogous to those of Polish citizens (until 13 April, 846 thousand PESEL numbers were issued. 96% of them were given to women and children)[iii].
From the report one can learn that the statistical refugee woman is 38 years old (5 percent of refugee women are of retirement age) and left Ukraine with a child. The data shows that 37 percent of them have one child, 18 percent. – 18 percent have two children, while 8 percent have three or more. Almost two-thirds of them have a university degree (53%) or incomplete university education (8%), 16% have secondary education and every fifth refugee (22%) has completed a vocational school. The majority of refugees (17 percent) are highly qualified professionals, 15 percent are teachers and other education professionals. Next are those working in the service sector (14 percent) and those employed in trade (13 percent). They are followed by manual and office workers (7 percent each) and the unemployed (6 percent). 5 percent of those surveyed are in management positions, 3 percent. – entrepreneurs.
Two-thirds of refugees (63%) want to take up employment in Poland, one in five (20%) want to support themselves without work, and only 6% intend to apply for refugee status. 11% said they would support themselves in some other way or that they do not intend to take up employment in Poland.
The report shows that almost half (45%) of refugees do not speak Polish at all or know only basic phrases in our language, while another 29% assess their knowledge of Polish as at best poor. Only 5 percent feel that they communicate with Poles on a good level, and 4 percent that their Polish is very good or excellent. Polish is the third language, which people fleeing Ukraine indicate that they know at least at a communicative level. The first is Russian – indicated by 90% of respondents – English (55%), the fourth – German (6%).
Ukrainians may fill the gap on the Polish labor market
– The work of Ukrainian citizens is an opportunity to eliminate the deficit of employees in certain industries. Filling the gap in the labor market can be beneficial for the Polish economy – believes the Minister of Labor and Social Policy Marlena Maląg. According to the current data from employers have already received more than 62 thousand (data from mid-April) notifications on commissioning work to Ukrainian citizens and their number is constantly growing. [iv] The majority, nearly 30 thousand people, were employed to perform simple work. Less than 9 thousand people were industrial workers and craftsmen. But in this group there were also over 6.4 thousand service workers and salesmen, nearly 5.4 thousand office workers and nearly 2.5 thousand specialists.
The Polish market is capable of absorbing about 300 thousand Ukrainians in a short period of time, according to the report “Ukrainians on the Polish labor market – experiences, challenges and prospects” prepared in 2018 by EWL Group, which deals with recruitment of top-class specialists from Eastern markets. Currently, according to experts, the Polish economy is able to absorb half a million workers from Ukraine within six months.[v] Ukrainian refugees may fill the gap on the labor market in the trade and services sector, but not only.
Economists at PKO Bank Polski expect that about 3 million refugees from Ukraine will settle in Poland this year, of which about 30 percent will be economically active. “This would mean an increase in labor supply in Poland by as much as 5-6 percent. According to us, the wave of refugees may also generate as many as 200,000 additional jobs this year.” – economists estimate in the bank’s quarterly Economic Winds of War. In turn, a survey conducted by the Polish Economic Institute in early March showed that 14% of companies in Poland planned to increase their employment levels within three months. [vi]
Women arriving to Poland will find employment most rapidly in such market sectors as HoReCa, tourism, agriculture and horticulture. In the prepared by Personnel Service S.A. Polish Labor Market Barometer as much as 60 percent of entrepreneurs in the HoReCa sector declared their willingness to hire staff from the East. The survey conducted by Randstad Research Institute in cooperation with Pollster Research Institute confirms that most jobs for refugees will be found in the catering and hotel industry (47 percent), as well as in construction (33 percent) and industry (30 percent). [vii]
The Polish medical and elderly care industry has a high demand for employees. There is a shortage of nurses and doctors in Poland and the Polish society is ageing very quickly. However, the barrier is the knowledge of the Polish language. Another industry that in principle can absorb “everyone” is the very broadly defined IT sector. In this case, Polish language does not seem to be so important. However, there are other barriers – related to work with data, for which security clearance is required.
Working refugees can also help the Polish pension system. In an interview with the Rzeczpospolita daily, the President of the Social Insurance Institution (ZUS), Gertruda Uścińska, admitted that everything should be done to legally employ the newcomers from the East in Poland as soon as possible, as the more people work, the more efficient the pension insurance system is. [viii]
Rental housing is getting more expensive, new educational placements needed
Gaps in the Polish labor market will also appear with the influx of refugees: more doctors or psychotherapists who speak Ukrainian will be needed, for example. On the other hand, workers with a communicative knowledge of Polish are currently in demand. Therefore, there is a need for free Polish language courses (especially for those who have the opportunity to work in health care and education) and industry-specific trainings. Minister of Education and Science Przemyslaw Czarnek stated that about 3.5 thousand teachers from Ukraine have applied for employment in Polish schools.
The presence of Ukrainian refugees in Poland has already influenced many areas of life, e.g. the situation on the market of apartments for rent, changes on the labour market, if only in the context of regulations facilitating employment of Ukrainian women and men. It is necessary to prepare a larger number of places in nurseries, kindergartens and schools, which is already happening through the efforts of the institutions themselves and local governments, but will require well-considered systemic solutions in the long-term perspective.
More than 160 thousand students from Ukraine, who fled the war, are already attending schools in Poland. More than three-quarters of them are in elementary schools. Among the districts where Ukrainian children study the most, large cities predominate. Since the beginning of the Russian aggression against Ukraine, about 700-800 thousand school-age children have come to Poland. [ix]
Will Ukrainians leave for the West?
Polish employers have so far employed Ukrainian migrants usually as Uber drivers, on construction sites, in stores at the checkout and seasonally in agriculture at harvest. For most of them it was good for a while. Even now, many refugees looking for quick employment will grasp similar jobs. But among the current migrants there are mostly people with higher education and most of them are women with children. It is by no means certain that the Ukrainians coming to Poland will be content with casual work and will be eager to apply for jobs that are not of interest to Poles because of their professional aspirations.
A large part of current war refugees from Ukraine are specialists and entrepreneurs, who may not want to take up simple manual work, and if they do, they will choose higher wages in the West,” indicates an analysis prepared by Ukrainian publisher and journalist Vyacheslav Butkaliuk . It shows that Poland has mostly vacancies in industries and positions designed for men. It takes time and often investment to adapt them to women. Another problem that both potential employees and employers in Poland point out is the lack of knowledge of the Polish language. This, for example, stops doctors from treating patients in Polish hospitals.[x]
Will wage growth slow down?
According to analysts at PKO Bank Polski, the influx of Ukrainian refugees to Poland may slow down wage growth in Poland, but will not worsen the situation of Polish workers. “We estimate that the composition effect alone may slow down wage growth. We expect a significant reduction in labor shortages, primarily in the service sectors, noteworthy that the severity of the skill shortage barrier in many industries has already fallen in March. We estimate that the influx of refugees into the tight labor market will not worsen the situation of domestic workers. The wave of refugees will generate increased demand for work in public services (even 200,000 additional jobs in education and health care), and, given the simplification of procedures, this demand will be met by incoming refugees,” economists at PKO Bank Polski write in their analysis.
Conclusion
The influx of nearly 3 million Ukrainian refugees to Poland creates enormous challenges for Polish society and economy. In the short term, it is a considerable cost, but in the long term, according to experts, it may help the Polish economy, in particular by filling the gap on the labour market and being an answer to demographic problems. However, it will be possible with a coherent, prudent and planned social policy, which will use the potential of such a large but culturally close migration.
[i] Twitter of Polish Border Guards https://twitter.com/Straz_Graniczna/status/1516303327696457733
[ii] Euroactiv.pl Portal https://www.euractiv.pl/section/migracje/news/wiekszosc-ukrainskich-uchodzcow-nie-zamierza-zostac-w-polsce-raport/
[iii] The Ministry of Interior and Administration https://www.gov.pl/web/mswia/wiceminister-pawel-szefernaker-do-dzis-wydano-846-tys-numerow-pesel-dla-uchodzcow-z-ukrainy
The Ministry of Family and Social Policy https://www.gov.pl/web/rodzina/obywatele-ukrainy-wypelnia-luke-na-polskim-rynku-pracy
[v] The Gazeta Prawna Daily https://www.gazetaprawna.pl/magazyn-na-weekend/artykuly/8382174,rynek-pracy-w-polsce-pracownicy-z-ukrainy.html
[vi] The Forsal.pl Portal https://forsal.pl/praca/artykuly/8397010,ukraincy-wplyw-na-rynek-pracy-polska-uchodzcy-zatrudnienie.html
[vii] The Forsal.pl Portal https://forsal.pl/praca/artykuly/8397010,ukraincy-wplyw-na-rynek-pracy-polska-uchodzcy-zatrudnienie.html
[viii] The Forsal.pl Portal https://forsal.pl/praca/artykuly/8397010,ukraincy-wplyw-na-rynek-pracy-polska-uchodzcy-zatrudnienie.html
[ix] The Konkret24 Portal https://konkret24.tvn24.pl/polska,108/uczniowie-z-ukrainy-w-polskich-szkolach-20-powiatow-ktore-przyjely-ich-najwiecej,1101754.html
[x] The Money.pl Portal https://www.money.pl/gospodarka/uchodzcy-z-ukrainy-nie-zagrzeja-miejsca-na-polskim-rynku-pracy-wybiora-zachod-6757383799691872a.html