Weekly Briefing, Vol. 46. No. 3 (BH) December 2021
Bosnia and Herzegovina’s social circumstances in 2021
Summary
The COVID-19 pandemic marked the beginning and the end of 2021 because of the problems with acquiring the vaccines and finally because of the poor vaccination outcome in the country, which is barely over 20 %. The general population of Bosnia and Herzegovina is also declining because of the constant emigration. Pension systems are differently approached in separate entities and the green development policies are not in line with the EU directives. The main (non)political media events of 2021 include the film Quo Vadis, Aida? and specific celebrations by the main local politicians.
Introduction
In this social summary and review briefing of 2021 we will present the two ongoing pandemics that were yet again troubling the country throughout year: COVID-19 and constant loss of population due to emigration. Besides this, we will review important social issues of the country’s pension systems and green development policies situation, and in the end mention the most important media events of the year.
Dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic at the beginning of the year and the current situation
First several months of 2021 started quite badly in Bosnia and Herzegovina considering the country’s fight against the COVID-19 pandemic. Although they had been paid for months in advance, the COVAX program agreement failed to deliver the vaccines on time. New instructions given by the COVAX authorities forced both entities in Bosnia and Herzegovina to go separately into alternative negotiations and agreements with vaccine manufacturing companies, but the process was going very slow. First donations came from Serbia, with around 15 000 dosages to both entities and the main agreements were signed with the Russian Sputnik V vaccine company, which is still not approved by the WHO and the EMA. AstraZeneca vaccine had been in use as well and priority medical staff had been vaccinated first in both entities. After these initial problems with acquiring the vaccines in the beginning of the year, which even prompted protests from the health workers, the vaccination acquiring process finally started to function normally by time of the summer months. Currently Bosnia and Herzegovina is facing quite an opposite problem then in the beginning of the year: currently, only 21 % of the population has been fully vaccinated and more than half a million doses of vaccine was destroyed due to their expiry. It is easy to predict that, due to this, the country will again face another harsh COVID-19 winter with high numbers of infected and dead, also forcing the health system in general to focus all its forces to the pandemic, creating a lack of treatment in other health related areas.
General population situation: immigration/emigration and census
When comparing the general statistics from the last census (2013), and approximating that Bosnia and Herzegovina now roughly has around three million inhabitants regarding the severe and continuous emigration from the country in the last decade, with the statistics of immigration taken for the period of 2010-2019, one sees that the number of immigrants who can have impact on the economic and social changes in the country is too small. Illegal immigration also has almost no real impact on the economy and society in Bosnia and Herzegovina, as illegal immigrants are just passing through the territory, or are excluded from the everyday structures of the country and only contributing to the occasional political quarrels and media headlines. The most significant impact in the changing of society in Bosnia and Herzegovina still lies on the opposite side of the migration coin, its emigration. The constant flow of its citizens who are leaving the country due to economic reasons is not slowing down, particularly due to the very high unemployment rate as well as lack of work possibilities for the young, especially educated people. Considering that the state authorities are not challenging the problem with incentives for the young work force, this current immigration process is already having and will have its effect on the Bosnian society in decades to come. Overall, the period from 1990s up to present day, mostly marked by the effects of war and the subsequent breakdown of all social institutions, strongly changed all the elements of demographic system. The last, very debatable, census in 2013 showed that population of Bosnia and Herzegovina had decreased in comparison to the census from 1991 by about 850,000 inhabitants (around 20 %). Yet again, it is (unofficially) estimated that this number today is significantly higher, because of continuous emigration ever since. More than 25 years after the official end of the war and the new structural division of Bosnia and Herzegovina by the Dayton agreement, the country’s society has not only not fully recovered from the consequences of the three years of armed conflict, but it is still bearing its daily burden. Next census will show that the two current pandemic situations (COVID-19 and emigration) in Bosnia and Herzegovina are hurting the demographic of the country most probably in a severe way.
State of the pension systems and green development policies
In 2021 we were reviewing specific state policy cases that have significant effects on the country’s society. Firstly, the pension systems, regards to which the two entities in Bosnia and Herzegovina operate on separate public pension systems. Pension reforms in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina have been only minimal, although broader reforms have been considered necessary. Republika Srpska led the reform process by launching a pension reform in 2011 to restore its fiscal balance and reduce pension contribution arrears. Reforms in Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina have been implemented only since March 2018, resulting in a system with similar parameters to those of Republika Srpska.
Secondly, the Green Development Policy and Action in Bosnia and Herzegovina is a complex issue that has to be grasped on many levels as there are no general state plans or agreements on it. In January 2021 Bosnia and Herzegovina was sanctioned by the EU for not following the de-carbonization directives and planning to build new thermo-electric power plants. Both in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Republika Srpska, environmental declarations are voted, and laws planned to protect the exploitation of rivers. However, hundreds of new hydro-power plants are planned to be built in spite of it. Sweden funded program ESAP 2030+ trying to give an overview of the current environmental situation and challenges and is putting forward a 10-year plan on how to address various environmental challenges by providing four jurisdiction strategies and action plans for Bosnia and Herzegovina level, Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Republika Srpska and Brčko District.
Exceptional media events of 2021: Quo Vadis, Aida? and celebrations events by the local politicians
Regarding the general media situation, we presented several social events created by the local politicians this year as they clearly showcase how the politicians themselves perceive their official and personal positions in the state and the society. August offered the media in Bosna and Herzegovina two celebrational exclusives: the birthday of Dragan Čović, the unofficial Croat leader that was attended by highly esteemed guests and unveiled his new family coat of arms, and the wedding of Jasmina Izetbegović, daughter of Bakir Izetbegović, the Bosniak political powerhouse, who’s godfather was none other than the Turkish president Erdogan himself. In September the Bosnian public was being amused by the horse-riding lesson of the young Banja Luka mayor Draško Stanivuković that he was giving to a female colleague in the office, while in October the unofficial Republika Srpska leader Milorad Dodik was being amused by morning drinks and accordion songs before the session of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
The most significant media event connected with the film industry of the country occurred in April, as Bosnia and Herzegovina’s produced film Quo Vadis, Aida?, by the most acclaimed national director Jasmila Žbanić was nominated for the most prestigious film award Oscar of the American Film Academy. This war drama was nominated in the category of International feature film, 19 years after the only Oscar award for Bosnia and Herzegovina, in the same category, was won by Danis Tanović with the film No Man’s Land. The social and political significance of Quo Vadis, Aida?, about the events of the Srebrenica massacre in 1995, is that it is receiving and will continue to receive major media exposure on its subject. This is important in regard to the negations of the massacre and its genocidal character from the political voices coming for mostly from Republika Srpska, Army of which was the perpetrator of the mentioned war crimes. Although the film didn’t win the American Academy Oscar, it swept the European Film Awards, winning in the category for best film, best director (Jasmila Žbanić) and best actress (Jasna Đuričić).
Conclusion
Bosnia and Herzegovina will continue to face further rise in new COVID-19 cases and the population number will continue to decline due to emigration, which will be very much evident in the next census. It seems that no significant changes will be made to improve the pensions systems or green development policies. The most important media event continues to revolve around local politicians, while the acknowledgments given to the film Quo Vadis, Aida? can be considered one of the rare positive reactions by the international community towards Bosnia and Herzegovina.