China Watch Vol. 1, No. 4, November 2021, ISSN 2786-2860
French-German Cooperation and the Future of EU Strategic Autonomy
Tian Dewen
Deputy Director of the Institute of European Studies
Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
The EU’s “strategic autonomy” is not a concept with clear connotations. After the EU released its global strategy in 2016, “strategic autonomy” frequently appeared in official documents of the EU as well as France and Germany. Its core content is that the EU as a whole must maintain the independence of internal affairs and diplomacy, emphasizing that only by maintaining “strategic autonomy”, Europe can possibly continue to play a unique “leadership” on the international stage. Obviously, to achieve this goal, it is clear that Europe must be integrated.
Franco-German cooperation has always been called the engine of European integration, and it should also be an important cornerstone of the EU’s “strategic autonomy”. Now, this engine faces three variables. First, the Merkel era is coming to an end, and Germany’s international influence will decline within a certain period of time no matter who will be her successor. Then, will the EU’s strategic autonomy become vain talk due to the shift from the “Merkelon” Advocacy to Macron’s solo fight?” Second, European economy continues to be affected by the covid-19 pandemic. Among the world’s three major economies, China, the United States and the European Union, the EU’s economic situation is the worst. In terms of trends, there is no room for optimism in the near future. So, can Europe, which has accelerated its decline in economic power, still have the ability to maintain “strategic autonomy”? Third, after Biden became President, the United States immediately lowered its profile towards Europe and assumed a posture of rebuilding the “Trans-Atlantic Alliance”. Most European leaders rejoiced in this. So, will the EU still insist on “strategic autonomy” in the future? The EU is an important pole in a multi-polar world. Its strategically autonomous future has an important influence on the trend of the world structure and is also crucial to the future development of China-EU relations. I believe that “EU strategic autonomy” will be not greatly affected by the current variables, and Europe will be still an important pole in a multi-polar world.
First, the “European strategic autonomy” in the “post-Merkel era” will not undergo fundamental changes. This is because “EU strategic autonomy” is the EU’s strategic tendency. It runs through all EU policy domains, but it is not a specific policy domain. Compared with the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) and the Common Security and Defense Policy (CSDP), “strategic autonomy” is not the EU’s policy, but the EU’s policy orientation. Therefore, leadership turnover can only affect its “strength” on a practical level at best, and it is impossible to completely abandon this principle. Therefore, what everyone cares about now is whether the “European strategic autonomy” in the “post-Merkel era” will become weaker, and to what extent. I think it should not become weaker, because the most active promoter of “EU strategic autonomy” has always been France. Merkel’s role as the German leader is to support France in this respect. Even if her successor’s support is not as strong as hers, he/she will not explicitly hold no brief for it. Because such an act would weaken French-German cooperation and affect European integration, which is not in the national interest of Germany.
Historically, Germany and France have always played different roles in the “EU strategic autonomy”, which is determined by the characteristics of the two countries. We know that post-war European integration started with the French-German reconciliation, but France and Germany’s demands for integration are quite different: relatively speaking, France’s demands for European integration are more political. This includes its promotion of Europe to play an independent role on the world stage. As a vanquished country, Germany had to put its political goal first on becoming a “normal country”, so its expectation for integration is generally more economy-oriented. Meanwhile, France wants to maintain its independence from the United States, which should be the most prominent feature among all European countries. In the post-war era, fundamental changes have taken place in Germany, which shifted from a Germany based upon Prussian culture since Second Reich Germany to a new Germany based on Bavarian culture. It can be said that changes have taken place at the “genetic” level. This change is long-term and will not undergo qualitative changes due to the change of leaders.
Second, the weakening of European economy will not eliminate the EU’s willingness to strengthen its “strategic autonomy”. This is because the weakening of European economy is the result of changes in the world economic structure. Only when Europe gains new competitive advantages can it fundamentally change the economic downturn. The Ursula von der Leyen’s Commission has focused on “green economy”, “digital economy”, and industrial chain adjustment, and this is the purpose. Due to the impact of the covid-19 pandemic, it will take longer time for these policies to show their performance. But from the perspective of tendency, Europe may not have a better countermeasure. in this sense, Franco-German cooperation plays a cornerstone role in the EU. Not only do they actively implement the EU’s strategies, but to a large extent these strategies are originally the externalization of their internal policies to the EU level. After 70 years of integration, French and German economies have been highly integrated, with a high degree of consistency in concepts, systems, and policies. Therefore, leadership changes should not have a big difference.
Third, after Biden took office, the US’s low profile towards Europe cannot change the trend of alienation between European and American allies. Recently, the selfishness and unilateralism shown by the United States in the process of withdrawing troops from Afghanistan are enough to cast a chill over Europe, and it has become more aware that Biden and Trump have little difference in “America First”. Andres Ortega, a senior researcher at the Royal Elcano Institute in Spain, wrote that NATO needs to think more realistically about its future, especially when many European leaders have a crisis of confidence in Washington. The first factor that makes Europe suspicious is Trump, and now it is the way of withdrawing troops from Afghanistan… This is a political and social failure, not just a military failure. The low profile of the United States towards Europe does not weaken the necessity of French-German cooperation to strengthen their “strategic autonomy” from the United States; instead, it enhances such a possibility.
This is because France and Germany are actually different in their degree of strategic autonomy towards the United States. France has emphasized its diplomatic independence since De Gaulle. After the war, Germany not only relied on the protection of the United States in the military and politically adhered to the liberal values advocated by the United States, but also became more economically dependent on the United States. However, France and Germany both hope to cooperate with the United States on an equal footing within the framework of multilateralism and are not willing to become a vassal of the United States in any sense. Compared with Trump, Biden verbally supports multilateralism. However, obviously, it’s not possible for the United States to support multilateralism as much as Europe does, and it’s even less possible to really get along equally with small and medium-sized European countries under the multilateral mechanism. After Biden took office, Macron’s tune on the independence from the United States has dropped a lot, and his policy toward the United States is getting closer to that of Germany. However, if Europe wants to safeguard its own interests, it cannot completely turn to the United States. Not only is the United States unreliable, but the contradiction between the two sides on multilateralism and unilateralism cannot be surpassed. Therefore, if Europe wants to become an equal partner of the United States in the “Atlantic Alliance”, it must strengthen its “strategic autonomy” based on French-German cooperation.
Against the background of the covid-19 pandemic, “major changes unseen in a century” (President Xi Jinping’s concept) are undergoing drastic changes. Biden’s coming to power and Merkel’s stepping down will have an impact on the process of these changes, but they will not change the direction of the changes. European integration is an important part of the multi-polarization of the world. It is a major event for France, Germany and other European countries. Even if it is difficult, it will have to go on. Otherwise, European integration will be even more difficult. From this perspective, strengthening Europe’s strategic autonomy is an important goal of European integration. As a strategic orientation, Europe’s “strategic automomy” will not change fundamentally.
（The article was completed on 19 September 2021）