Weekly Briefing, Vol. 30, No. 3 (CZ), September 2020
Social Outlook for the Post-Crisis Period
The coronavirus crisis has had not only economic or political impacts but also social ones. This briefing is therefore concerned with the role and actions of the liberal democratic state as well as media during the crisis as these two proved to be the crucial social actors. Afterwards, the attention is paid to chosen effects of the crisis in relation to political and economic problems in a broader social context.
The most important point is not the coronavirus epidemic itself but reactions of the State and other social actors together with the adopted measures aimed to curb the spread of the disease. Introducing global restrictions, the Government imposed radical limitations on freedoms of citizens and civil rights, and paralysed economy. But it seems that restrictive measures cannot be considered the only remedy and solution of the difficult situation. Similarly, they cannot be interpreted as the only cause of the positive development observed in the course of the last weeks as the reality is more complex. The crisis revealed the strength of the liberal democratic state which was able to take power, proving to be operational and dominant in the social milieu. After decades of apparent weakness and incapacity, the State demonstrated genuine sovereignty. Paradoxically, it occurred by means of actions going beyond a standard operation of the liberal democratic regime. Therefore, it is not excluded that such an experience can undermine legitimacy of the liberal democracy, motivating some social and political actors to make use of the unexpected opportunity and widespread popular support expressed to the strong political action during the crisis. In the future, one can expect more expansionist and interventionist state policies, interfering both in economic, market processes and ordinary life of people. At this moment, it seems that the opposite position warning against strengthening of the State is weaker. The traditional dilemma between liberty and security is likely to be solved in favour of guaranteeing more security and safety to the detriment of liberty and freedoms, at least in the short- and medium-term perspective.
Restoring the “normal”
Nevertheless, the State was not the only actor who showed its power and influence. The crisis also confirmed the weight of media and their manipulative practice. Not by coincidence, some experts and politicians opine that an excessive power of the State and media will be more dangerous than epidemics in the future. In the last months, both state representatives and media contrived to raise atmosphere of fear and danger which spread out among the society. Subsequently, a significant part of the Czech population conformed to the restrictive regime immediately and without hesitation, even calling for more severe measures. Critics of restrictions and state interventionism usually do not challenge the need for an adequate response to the epidemic but disapprove the degree, perceiving it as disproportionate. The excessive power of media should, therefore, become a subject of public discussion. It is not to suppress the freedom of press but to define clear borders of their business. If we witness such unprecedented interventions in economic and social life, there cannot be a sphere of media absolutely uncontrolled and unregulated. Given the enormous role played by media nowadays, they should bear full responsibility for the way they do their business and should be under stronger public and legal control. In a wide array of cases of the last months, journalists could be accused of scaremongering. Notwithstanding this fact, no serious public or political debate will likely to be run in the Czech Republic with exception of long-lasting disputes over the role of the public service media (the Czech Television and the Czech Radio).
Under the current circumstances, the principal task is to get back to “normal” in order to mitigate huge economic losses and deficits (including the state one). An important part of the stabilisation and “normalisation” is resumption of standard operation of health care system. In response to the spread of the disease and with the aim of prevention, the health care has been limited significantly which can produce a higher number of victims than the coronavirus itself as the health care – counting a wide array of surgeries – has been put away and postponed. Another aspect is psychological impacts on the population which may lead (and have already led) to frustration, isolation and deprivation. Not only for this reason is another round of the nationwide, global quarantine and state of emergency (in case of the second wave of the epidemic) unacceptable. Moreover, it would be unsustainable economically.
Furthermore, little attention has been paid to effects on the work ethic. During the quarantine, considerable part of employees received a salary, even though they were at home not working. The extraordinary state could satisfy this part of the society as they had effortless incomes, which can lead to devastating consequences (if not taking into account the problem of injustice). Similar effects can be brought about by generous social programmes of support and benefits. These might weaken the motivation to work, make productivity lower and, last but not least, deepen indebtedness. Debts originated during the present-day period will be re-payed by the future generations with great difficulties. All these factors may give rise to social problems and conflicts as well as to impoverishment of different social strata. The political elite should become aware of the positive correlation between wealth of both the society as a whole and individuals on one hand, and stability, sustainability and the very existence of democracy on the other. Acting irresponsibly and pursuing short-term goals and interests, the politicians may undermine the current democratic regime and its roots, all the more, that the Czech nation has little experience with the political democracy.
Challenges to cope with
What is to be done then and what other implications will the crisis bring about? It is necessary to kick-start the economy which is unthinkable without lifting of restrictions imposed earlier. It emerged that some political forces were reserved to do so contenting with the crisis state and extraordinary powers they gained within the state of emergency regime. It applies especially to the social democrats.
The crisis will likely to exacerbate the problems of the euro area, which will lead to even higher no-confidence towards the European currency project among the Czech society. At the moment, there is not any relevant political party or movement promoting the adoption of the euro. As stated the former governor of the Czech National Bank Miroslav Singer, a serious debate on the adoption of the common European currency ended not later than in 2008 after the financial crisis burst out. Since then, several attempts to open it could be observed but they were of no effect. The Czech side has made a commitment to adopt the euro when the Czech Republic was joining the European Union but, at first our country has to fulfil set conditions. Nowadays, the Czech Republic has fulfilled two out of four requirements regarding a state of the public finances and interest rates. At the same time, it fails to fulfil terms as to the price stability and exchange rate. It is highly probable that the current crisis will push this question further aside, all the more, that support of the euro has been increasingly lower in our country.
The Government will likely to oppose ideologically biased projects coming from the EU, for instance, the Green Deal. The official Czech position is rather sceptical in this regard, although statements made by different Government representatives have frequently been contradictory. The Green Deal and an enforced shift towards the carbon-free and completely green economy would damage the Czech economy seriously, producing grave social problems including unemployment, decrease in living standards related to rise in prices and impoverishment of the primarily low-income part of the society. In May, the Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš criticised the Brussels elites for their focus on the Green Deal and for making it the only way out of the crisis. The Czech Republic will continue to support economic, social and ecological sustainability but it has to be achieved in a gradual, organic way, not in a radical, global and coercive one.
Our economy will suffer from labour shortage, which is a long-term problem. It applies especially to construction, engineering and agriculture. The shortage was solved partially by means of import of foreign workers, first of all, from the Ukraine. However, a significant part of these had to leave for their native land, their return being very uncertain. Undoubtedly, the shortage will hamper the restart and development of the economy. This factor can merge with the mitigation of the work ethic and lowered motivation to work caused by social benefits provided by the State. Some groups of the population have been becoming increasingly dependent on the State and interested in the spendthrift state policies. The economic performance can also be affected negatively by irresponsible actions adopted by several political actors who undermine economic and other forms of cooperation with the non-Western partners, especially China and Russia, from ideological reasons. In any case, the challenges mentioned above should be taken into consideration if discussing the post-crisis outlook of the Czech Republic.