Weekly Briefing, Vol. 22, No. 1 (BH), October 2019
New European Commission and what it means for BIH
EU stagnation for over a year
Putting bluntly, there seems no EU member or member-aspirant country being less concerned about the election and nomination of new European commissioners as Bosnia and Herzegovina. Only country (among realistic EU member-aspirants) that can be said is relatively farther than BIH in the process of EU integrations, Kosovo is and ought to be far more concerned how the new commissioners lineup (especially new Foreign& Security Policy Commissioner and Enlargement Commissioner) would impact its dialogue with Belgrade and the EU minded reform processes. BIH, according to widely shared professional opinion, has virtually frozen its EU integration processes at least from May 2019 when the outgoing European Commission sent Opinion on BIH. This means that BIH politicians and government officials did nothing to initiate discussion and due diligence, let alone implementation of proposed recommendations. In the hindsight, this is to say that “official” BIH has been mute about everything concerning the EU and the “positions, standpoints and concerns” should be harvested from EU-minded watchdog institutes and agencies. Their response on the current stillness in the EU integration is simple: no progress in forming BIH central government means no progress in the EU integrations.
Stakes on the BIH integration processes and obtaining a ‘green light’ for a start of accession negotiations, however, do change as a new “EU government” is about to come on the stage. It is only to see how farther the EU candidacy and opening of negotiations will become during the protracted “wuwei” stance from official Sarajevo.
Where exactly is BIH on its EU path
In early 2016, BiH submitted an application for EU membership. In May 2019, the EC issued an Opinion on BIH’s application for membership, without a clear deadline for when this country could obtain candidate status.
Since May this year, when the European Commission published Opinion on the progress the countries in Western Balkan (including BIH) made in the EU integration process, BIH leaders rarely have made any statement to show the EC Opinion is given due consideration. The fourteen points (mentioned in one of the previous political reports) identified by the EC for BIH as priorities on its path to candidate status and the opening of negotiations, were to be analyzed and implemented by the newly elected authorities after the general election held a year ago (7 October 2018). Since then, BIH entered a full year of the government crisis and despite some indications suggesting otherwise, is far from forming central government as it was half a year ago.
As BIH political analysts claim, if one thing is certain it is that the current ethno-political elite has no real commitment to pursue any integratory framework that aims to solve permanent political deadlock in BIH and ultimately render them expendable. At the first glance, as Denis Carkadzic of the NGO “Why Not” comments, there is a certain difference between commitments of the key political actors for the Euro-integration process, but soon, as the stagnation period prolongs “all masks will soon fall.” Just as in case of NATO integration, which is blocked by RS Parliament resolution and SNSD opposition, “conditionality” from BIH regarding the EU accession negotiations arrived when some MPs from Republika Srpska (RS) demanded the application of the so-called “entity-voting principle” for all decisions regarding the EU accession negotiations. This demand was rejected by Brussels, but shows awry thinking from BIH. – It is for the EU to adopt BIH standards first.
New EC Commissioners
While this situation continues in BIH, by September EU has started with the election of the new European Commission. No matter how distant it may seem to the current BIH political reality and relevant to its application for candidate status, some political alignments regarding the appointments of the EU commissioners have emerged.
Already in August, Spanish Foreign Minister Josep Borrell has been announced for the post of EU High Representative for Foreign Policy and Security, scheduled to succeed Federica Mogherini in November. Although Serbian media was more vocal about his appointment, mostly because he is coming from one of four EU member states refusing to recognize Kosovo`s independence, his “national background” would also have some implications for BIH, especially for secessionist aspirations in RS. This experienced diplomat and EU-bureaucrat has made no suggestions indicating radical changes in policy towards the Western Balkans. He has announced to visit Prishtina in an effort to resume a dialogue between Belgrade and Prishtina and said to put the Western Balkans on his priority list should he be elected for the post. In overall, Bosnian media commented his nomination as continuing ‘business as usual’ as far as BIH candidacy is concerned, allowing some personal and party differences to occur if this “old-school socialist” is about to share a table with “domestic nationalists”.
Nomination of Laszlo Trocsanyi, official Hungarian candidate for EU Commissioner, which was on EC President-elect von der Leyen`s initial ticket for the post of EU Commissioner for Enlargement policy provoked significant outcry in Bosinian media. Faktor.ba portal in the headlines put “This is a provocation!”, describing him as merely “executing the Orban`s will”. He was claimed to be the “architect” of the Hungarian justice system, which has been vehemently criticized within the EU for limiting the powers of the judiciary. Also, he introduced a series of laws that triggered legal conflicts with the European Commission, and gained many enemies in Brussels. For his prospective position of Enlargement Commissioner the most concerning fact was not his assumed conservative stance regarding the WB enlargement as it was his connections with “deficient and illiberal democracy” back home in Hungary. He oversaw laws criminalizing non-governmental organizations to assist refugees and set up Hungarian container camps for asylum seekers, as well as measures forcing the Central European University to leave Budapest. These are all alarming signals for European MEP`s when sending someone sharing too much same-mindedness with some leaders in the Western Balkans”.
Moreover, Bosnian analysts agree that the nomination of Fidesz candidate or any Victor Orban`s wingman is not motivating for BIH`s European aspirations, especially because the latter in addition to his controversial views, is also known for making quasi-state receptions to the RS President (current Serb MOP) Milorad Dodik and was photographed with the ethnic map of BIH. Bosnian media reported quite jubilatory when by the end of September the EP Committee on Legal Affairs (JURI) rejected Trocsanyi`s nomination on the grounds of the conflict of interest.
Next to be discussed on the ticket for Enlargement Commissioner were Janez Lenarcic and Dubravka Suica, official candidates for commissioners from Slovenia and Croatia. Both candidates were elected by their respective governments as experienced EU bureaucrats with “top-notch references in the field of international and European affairs.” Janez Lenarcic was Slovenian Ambassador to the EU and was suggested to assume Enlargement policy, Regional policy or Trade& Energy. Dubravka Suica, on the other hand, is HDZ politician and long-term mayor of Dubrovnik, serving as Croatian MEP for two consecutive terms. Lenarcic and Suica are both capitalizing on their country`s position, historical, cultural and linguistic proximity to the Western Balkans. As a HDZ candidate (and Croatian), Suica`s proximity could be troubling for Sarajevo-based politicians who fear Croatian asymmetric bilateralism looming over EU-BIH relations.
New Head of EU Delegation arrives in Sarajevo
In August the EU has appointed new Head of the Delegation of the European Union (EU) to BIH and EU Special Representative. His name is Johann Sattler, experienced Austrian diplomat who already served in the Western Balkans (leaving his post as Austrian Ambassador in Albania) and in September replaced Swedish diplomat Lars-Gunnar Wigemark. In his first official address in BIH he has mentioned the current political and economic problems BIH is facing, referring to remarks about BIH as a “lost case” and a “country where the situation would never improve”, in down on earth tone said that “it might be possible, but much remains to be done in BIH.”
His appointment is too fresh even for first hand analysis. Besides the ‘opening address’ he went so far on few inaugural meetings where he expressed commitments for BIH`s EU integration. Countering the objections that the EU is slowing down with the WB enlargement agenda, he emphasized that the EU is not retreating from the Balkans; however, given the circumstances it is believed that the impact of EU`s downsizing its commitments in the region would be the least worrisome for ‘permanently blocked’ BIH.
Indicative to this is mentioning substantial socio-political problems of BIH rather than current political issues in Sattler`s address. In his words, the most important is the implementation of comprehensive socio-economic reforms. The second issue is the rule of law, he believes, is a fundamental issue. Only with a functioning judiciary would be possible to start accession negotiations, which implies tackling all constitutional (Sejdic-Finci law) and procedural hurdles. He also singled out public administration reform, emphasizing that citizens “are investing a lot of money in public administration and, in turn, expect less nepotism and more efficient administration”.
On the EU-BIH dialogue level, the EC`s opinion represents five key priorities that the country must address. One of the first things the EC expects to see is the development of an action plan for implementation of the opinion. “That would send a clear message to the EU that there is a commitment to move forward.” For the most crucial question, should the EU keep BIH integration path aligned with standards for whole WB region or relent to any sign of progress from BIH, the Head of the EU Delegation temporarily “passed the ball” to BIH side saying that for now everything depends on BIH authorities.