Weekly Briefing, Vol. 68. No. 4 (LT) December 2023
German Brigade in Lithuania and Increasing NATO Presence in the Baltics
Summary
In December 2023 Germany and Lithuania have finalized the plans whereby German brigade will be deployed in Lithuania starting from 2024 and finishing in 2027. The article delves into the specifics of the brigade’s deployment strategies, touching on the sensitive topic of funding the associated infrastructure and brigade’s upkeep costs. It further explores the importance of the brigade’s deployment in safeguarding Lithuania and deterring Russia. The broader context of this move, as part of NATO’s growing presence in the Baltic region, is also examined, particularly its implications for Russia’s strategic position in Ukraine. The article concludes by discussing Germany’s evolution from a hesitant spectator to a major contributor of military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine and a major actor ensuring the security in the whole region. This shift, marked by the realization of the “Zeitenwende”, is evident in the proactive actions of German politicians. These developments are set to influence the trajectory of Europe’s future.
Introduction
In December 2023 German and Lithuanian Defence Ministers Boris Pistorius and Arvydas Anušauskas in have signed a long-awaited inter-state agreement and plan for the deployment of a Bundeswehr brigade in Lithuania. It is a historic moment for both Lithuania and the post-Soviet region which has never before seen permanent presence of foreign NATO countries on such a large scale. Discussions on the deployment of such a brigade in Lithuania had started after Russia invaded Ukraine, and Germany announced its commitment in June 2022.
The article provides details of the brigade deployment plans, including a delicate issue of financing the related infrastructure and maintenance expenses of the brigade. The article also discusses the significance of deployment of the brigade in terms of deterrence and defence of Lithuania. It is also discussed how the deployment of German brigade in Lithuania is part of the wider trend of increasing NATO presence in the Baltic region and why it means a strategic defeat of Russia in Ukraine. Finally, the article explains how Germany has transformed from being unwilling and afraid to take leadership role into one of the biggest military and humanitarian aid donor for Ukraine. The actions and growing military strength of Germany have shown that the “Zeitenwende” has materialized and that Germany’s politicians have started showing their leadership through actions.
The plan for brigade’s deployment
The signed agreement between Germany and Lithuania, and the implementation plan, or the roadmap, stipulates specific details, timelines, and responsibilities of the two countries regarding the brigade’s deployment.
German has committed to station 4,800 troops and 200 civilians permanently in Lithuania. Troops assigned to the German brigade will arrive in Lithuania gradually with first troops arriving as early as 2024. The brigade’s key deployment to Lithuania will take place between 2025 and 2026, and in 2027 the brigade is to reach its full operational strength and ready to carry out military tasks.
The brigade will be called Panzerbrigade 42 with its HQ based in Lithuania. It will be subordinate to a German division. The brigade is planned to consist of three battalions. Berlin will deploy two combat troop battalions – the 122nd Armoured Infantry Battalion from the German state of Bavaria and the 203rd Tank Battalion from North Rhine-Westphalia – to form the core of the new Lithuania brigade. A third battalion will be a multinational NATO battle unit as part of the alliance’s Enhanced Forward Presence force. A battalion is already deployed in Lithuania since 2017, under German command, with rotating personnel from several other nations. [1], [2]
Family members of German soldiers are also expected to come and live in Lithuania, and join them for the long rotation period. Lithuanian Defence Minister Arvydas Anušauskas said that the signed implementation plan for hosting the German brigade in Lithuania covers military as well as civil infrastructure, including all the necessary services for the families arriving with the soldiers. Therefore, it is very important to pool the joint efforts of all state institutions, including municipalities and the private sector, for the implementation of this plan.” The agreement also defines the legal, tax, employment and other conditions for German citizens to live in Lithuania, he said. [3]
“As the Host Nation, we will be responsible for providing the best possible conditions for the German military and their families. We will need to do quite a lot of homework but I am certain we will be able to do it quickly and well. We will collaborate closely with the Federal Ministry of Defence throughout the implementation of the Roadmap: our combined efforts will make the German Brigade in Lithuania a real NATO enhanced forward presence role model,” Anušauskas is cited as saying in the ministry’s press release. [4]
Investment needed
The costs of upkeeping a brigade are significant. As of now, however, there are still a lot of questions what specific costs will be regarded as related to the brigade and how these will be shared between Germany and Lithuania.
As a reference, according to German DM sustaining a brigade in Germany costs around EUR 25-30 million per month. [5] But this amount includes recurring costs after the necessary infrastructure development is completed.
The Director of Defense Policy of the Ministry of National Defense (KAM) Vaidotas Urbelis does not comment on the information that appeared in the German media, that it could be a big financial challenge for Lithuania to receive the German brigade. V. Urbelis notes that, as stipulated in the bilateral action plan for the deployment of the brigade signed this week, Lithuania and Germany will share these costs – the financial proportions should be adjusted in the coming months. “We recently signed an action plan with Germany, which contains a paragraph where it is very clear that the sharing of the cost burden will be agreed upon in the first quarter of 2024. Now it is quite premature to talk about specific money,” emphasized the representative of the Ministry of Finance. [6]
Mr. Urbelis also pointed out that when calculating the expenses for the deployment of the brigade, it is very important to agree on what expenses will be deemed to be brigade-related costs. “How we will count is very important. If we are building a road that is also used by local residents, do we count that towards the brigade’s expenses? (…) We can greatly reduce that amount and make it specific to the funds allocated only to the brigade”, noted V. Urbelis. However, whether this would mean that the financial burden of building roads or railways in specific municipalities would also fall on the shoulders of the self-government, V. Urbelis has not yet answered. “For this purpose, a Government working group has been created, headed by the Prime Minister, and those issues will be resolved there – how, where, when what will be built, resolved and paid for.” These decisions will be made in the next two months”, said the specialist. [7]
The brigade’s deployment and upkeep expenses will be quite substantial, and discussions about who will bear these costs will be delicate. Nonetheless, the enhanced security and deterrence benefits that the brigade will provide to Lithuania will far outweigh these expenditures.
Geopolitical implications and defence of Lithuania
The agreement about German brigade in Lithuania is a huge win for Lithuania. The deployment of German brigade in Lithuania is the first time in almost a century that Germany permanently stations its troops outside its borders.
First of all, such deployment will obviously act as deterrence against Russian aggression in the region. It is a sign that Lithuania not only has NATO allies but that its allies will be defending Lithuania’s territory from the first day of any possible act of aggression against the country.
“This is a historic decision both for Lithuania and Germany. It will significantly increase defence potential, enhance NATO deterrence and collective defence,” Minister of National Defence of Lithuania Arvydas Anušauskas said at a press conference in Vilnius. German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius in turn stated that the signing of the roadmap marks a new phase in the friendship between the two countries. [8]
“We are ready to defend NATO territory,” German DM Pistorius said in a press conference with his Lithuanian counterpart, Arvydas Anušauskas. The two ministers stressed the commitment of their countries to “defend each other and every centimetre of alliance territory at all times and to protect our freedom and democracy in accordance with Article 5 of the Washington Treaty.” The Washington Treaty, the founding basis of NATO, stipulates in Article 5 that an armed attack on any member will be deemed an attack against all. [9]
Strategic blow to Russia
The deployment of German brigade also sends a clear signal to Kremlin that Russia has already lost on a strategic level and failed to achieve its strategic goals. Upon unleashing full scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Putin infamously announced that Russia’s goals in Ukraine are its demilitarization and denazification, or in other words, changing of Ukraine’s current pro-Western government and undermining its goals to align with the EU and NATO. Additionally, prior to the invasion, the Kremlin had sent an ultimatum to NATO demanding that NATO would commit not to expand in the region, never admit Ukraine as a NATO member, and end any military activity and its presence in whole Eastern Europe. The deployment of the German brigade in Lithuania, together with other developments in the region, shows that Putin has achieved the exact opposite of what he had intended to achieve. Specifically, Russia has got an enlarged NATO, with Finland and Sweden joining the alliance. Russia has also got more NATO military presence in Eastern Europe, with Western countries committing increasing amount of their own military equipment and troops in the Eastern NATO. And, instead of Ukraine’s demilitarization, Russia has seen Ukraine’s military power becoming one of the strongest in Europe, with huge amounts of NATO military equipment flowing to Ukraine, NATO countries training Ukrainian troops and signing inter-state security agreements with Ukraine, for example, British PM Rishi Sunak and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky signing security agreement in January 2024.
The deployment of German brigade in Lithuania is yet another example of significant changes of security architecture that have been taking place in the region since the start of the war. For example, Sweden and Finland becoming members of NATO is another groundbreaking change that fundamentally changes the security situation of Lithuania and the whole region. Furthermore, new defence strategy and new defence plans agreed in 2023 NATO Summit in Vilnius have been characterized as the most comprehensive since the end of the Cold War and marked a significant milestone in strengthening the alliance in the Baltic region. The most recent example of increasing NATO presence in the region is Sweden’s announcement in January 2024 of its plans to deploy around 800 of its troops in Latvia. Swedish soldiers will guard Latvia’s border to deter Russian forces, joining forces with a Canada-led battle group already in the area.
While Putin’s official goal of attacking Ukraine was to prevent NATO expansion and make less NATO presence around Russia’s borders, his unleashed war in Ukraine has resulted in the exact opposite – accelerated NATO expansion and more NATO presence in the Baltic region.
Germany’s leadership
The German brigade in Lithuania shows yet another hugely important thing for Europe – Germany is changing and no is longer afraid to show its leadership when defending European values. Germany today is totally different from Germany back in February of 2024.
At the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine Germany was heavily dependent on Russia’s gas and other energy resources, unwilling to provide any meaningful military assistance to Ukraine because of its fear of angering Russia. In January 2022 Berlin’s first response to Ukraine’s request for military assistance was an offering of 5000 helmets and was derided as a ‘joke’ by Ukraine. Initially, Olaf Scholz, the German chancellor, not only declined to export weapons to Ukraine but has also been accused of holding up the movement of arms manufactured by Germany that was purchased by other NATO countries and offered to Ukraine. [10] This has gradually changed over the course of two years. Germany’s military assistance to Ukraine changed from being one of the lowest as a percentage of its GDP among Ukraine’s allies to one of the highest. In Euro terms, Germany’s military aid to Ukraine is second after the US (see Graph 1). Additionally, Germany sends to Ukraine significant amount of non-military aid. As of September 2023, Germany has given Ukraine around 24 billion Euros in humanitarian aid, direct payments, and weapons. [11]
Graph 1 – The countries pledging the most military aid to Ukraine, in billions of Euros [12]
This transformation of Germany is even more important when the US Congress is embroiled in political infighting which has resulted in delays and uncertainties regarding military and financial aid to Ukraine from the US.
The “Zeitenwende” has materialized
Specific commitment to deploy the German brigade in Lithuania as well as military and humanitarian aid for Ukraine is a proof that “Zeitenwende” has started to materialize.
On 27 February 2022, a few days after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz addressed the Bundestag, the country’s parliament. In his speech, he spoke about the beginning of a new era of security, promised to spend 100 billion Euros on the modernization of the German armed forces, the Bundeswehr, and increase defense spending to 2 per cent of Germany’s GDP. Mr. Scholz called the new political situation a Zeitenwende, or a fundamental turning. The term literally translated from German means the change of times. This meant that Germany, which has until now been plagued by the wounds of two world wars, which has participated in the actions of the NATO alliance with restraint and has assumed limited responsibility of safeguarding the European security architecture, is now making a U-turn with its policy.[13]
While initially the country avoided supporting Ukraine, Germany is now one of the main supporters of Ukraine. The deployment of the German brigade in Lithuania further confirms the changed role of Germany and the assumed leadership role. “The German brigade permanently stationed in Lithuania is the body of the Zeitenwende, not only an idea, but also a body. Germany takes on the role of defense leader. This is what Pistorius spoke about,” noted another Lithuanian journalist Vilmantas Venckūnas.[14]
The leadership of Germany has a potential to change the course of European politics. Another Lithuanian journalist Andrius Jakimčuk reminded that after former German Chancellor Angela Merkel left politics, it was discussed who would become the new leader of Europe. Although many eyes have turned to French President Emmanuel Macron, Merkel’s successor is more likely to show leadership through his actions. “Olaf quite strongly drags the whole Ukraine issue behind him, he is not afraid to take it on. After all, he could just raise his hands when the issues are resolved, but no, he speaks quite fiercely against the Russian regime, chases all those businesses out, asks a naughty guy from Hungary for coffee, and now he is building the backbone of his new policy in the issue of the brigade in Lithuania. That leadership can be seen, unlike Macron’s, who in the last few years has been remembered by everyone for his calls to Putin”, said Mr. Jakimčuk.[15]
Conclusion
The stationing of a German brigade in Lithuania marks a historic and momentous occasion for Lithuania, Germany, and the entire region. This is the first instance of a NATO country permanently positioning military personnel and equipment of this magnitude on NATO’s eastern border. This move signifies an unprecedented level of defense for Lithuania. Germany’s decision to station its brigade on NATO’s eastern flank, coupled with its substantial military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine, demonstrates Germany’s growing readiness to assume leadership and responsibility for the region’s security. The Germany of today is a stark contrast to the Germany at the onset of the war, which was heavily reliant on Russia’s energy resources and struggled to overcome past errors. The “Zeitenwende” – a fundamental shift in Germany’s role in the European political and military landscape – is set to influence the region’s security architecture in the near future.
[1] LRT: Ministers sign plan for German brigade deployment in Lithuania, at: https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/2152602/ministers-sign-plan-for-german-brigade-deployment-in-lithuania
[2] DELFI: Roadmap signed for deployment of German brigade in Lithuania, at: https://www.delfi.lt/en/politics/roadmap-signed-for-deployment-of-german-brigade-in-lithuania-95412143
[3] LRT: Lithuania, Germany to sign brigade agreement in December – ministry, at: https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/2125299/lithuania-germany-to-sign-brigade-agreement-in-december-ministry
[4] DELFI: Roadmap signed for deployment of German brigade in Lithuania, at: https://www.delfi.lt/en/politics/roadmap-signed-for-deployment-of-german-brigade-in-lithuania-95412143
[5] Ibid.
[6] LRYTAS: Derybos dėl išlaidų pasidalinimo dislokuojant Vokietijos brigadą Lietuvoje vyks artimiausiais mėnesiais, at: https://www.lrytas.lt/lietuvosdiena/aktualijos/2023/12/21/news/derybos-del-islaidu-pasidalinimo-dislokuojant-vokietijos-brigada-lietuvoje-vyks-artimiausiais-menesiais-29678077
[7] Ibid.
[8] DELFI: Roadmap signed for deployment of German brigade in Lithuania, at: https://www.delfi.lt/en/politics/roadmap-signed-for-deployment-of-german-brigade-in-lithuania-95412143
[9] Deutsche Welle: German brigade in Lithuania set to be combat ready in 2027, at: https://www.dw.com/en/german-brigade-in-lithuania-set-to-be-combat-ready-in-2027/a-67754124
[10] THE GUARDIAN: Germany’s offer to Ukraine of 5,000 helmets is ‘joke’, says Vitali Klitschko, at: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/26/russia-ukraine-germany-under-pressure-to-back-eu-military-training-mission-in-ukraine
[11] Press and Information Office of the Federal Government: How Germany is supporting Ukraine, at: https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-en/service/germany-aid-for-ukraine-2192480
[12] STATISTA: The Countries Pledging the Most Military Aid to Ukraine, at: https://www.statista.com/chart/27278/military-aid-to-ukraine-by-country/
[13] TV3: „Zeitenwende“ tapo kūnu: kaip brigada Lietuvoje rodo pasikeitusią Vokietiją, at: https://www.tv3.lt/naujiena/video/zeitenwende-tapo-kunu-kaip-brigada-lietuvoje-rodo-pasikeitusia-vokietija-n1279051
[14] Ibid.
[15] Ibid.