Weekly Briefing, Vol. 48. No. 3 (HR) February 2022
Croatia’s Demographic Crisis: First Results of the 2021 Census
Summary
The 2021 census showed that Croatia has a serious demographic crisis. In 10 years, Croatia has lost almost 400,000 inhabitants, mostly due to emigration of labour force from Croatia to more prosperous EU member states. Croatia is becoming a country from which young people leave for good, old people stay, and fewer and fewer people are born. The reasons for such a demographic collapse are numerous; however, all-spread corruption in the political institutions and an undisputable lack of legal and social justice through rule of law and adequate economic and social policies inevitably contribute to negative demographic trends.
Introduction
The Croatian 2021 census was conducted from 13 September to 14 November 2021, and was determined by the conditions of the COVID-19 pandemic, both in form and duration. Namely, in the middle of the 4th wave of the pandemic, marked by the very deadly COVID-19 Delta strain, the 2021 census, coordinated by the Croatian Bureau of Statistics, consisted of two phases — the electronic self-enumeration phase and the field enumeration. Also, the deadline for the completion of the census was extended due to the lack of cooperation of inhabitants in the census, and they did not cooperate mostly because they evolved much distrust toward government official during the pandemic and anti-COVID regulations. With all the imaginable and unimaginable difficulties the enumerators had, the census was nevertheless complete and the results were eagerly awaited by the public. The first results of the census 2021 showed what everyone in Croatia knew with apprehension; namely, that Croatia no longer has 4 million inhabitants. According to the first official results of the census, published on 14 January 2022, Croatia has 3,888,529 inhabitants. This number shocked the public, because it means that in Croatia there are 396,360 fewer people (9.25% less) since the last census 2011[1].
Comparison of two censuses from 2011 and 2021
Source: Croatian Bureau of Statistics.
Moreover, compared to previous censuses, Croatia has almost the same population since 1948, when the first census was conducted after World War II, and almost a million fewer since 1991, at the time when new Republic of Croatia was created, with its 4.7 million inhabitants.
Population recorded in millions.
Croatian census records; data source: Croatian Bureau of Statistics.
There is a widespread agreement among all political actors and public opinion that the census showed a total demographic collapse of the Republic of Croatia (because of the demographic downslide since 1991), but the actors differ greatly in their interpretation of the causes of the current demographic crisis.
The opposition[2] claims that the ruling HDZ[3] party, through corruption, clientelism and the abduction of state institutions (especially the judiciary), has created conditions in a society where only the rich, powerful and party-eligible can have a decent life in Croatia, while others must live poorly or flee the country, and large number of people did left Croatia. Representatives of HDZ, as the current and longest-ruling party, defend HDZ’s governments and politics from the demographic crisis by pointing out the Croatian citizens acquired rights and freedoms of movement in the common European market thanks to Croatia’s membership in the European Union and Croatians intentionally economically migrated to the more prosperous countries. The truth about the cause of the exodus of the Croatian population is more complex and, when not instrumentalised for party purposes, inevitably encompasses both of these interpretations and more.
Dysfunctional state: corruption, clientelism and lack of justice
From 1990 to 2022, the HDZ did not rule for only 8 years, so the HDZ is the most responsible political party for political and social processes, especially in light of the fact that the HDZ is the party that founded the fundamental institutions and the official narrative of the Republic of Croatia. At the very beginning of the Republic of Croatia, the HDZ, led by the first president Franjo Tuđman, hijacked the existing institutions of the Socialist Republic of Croatia and over the years extremely corrupted and exploited them for private and anti-democratic purposes. It was a historic moment of transition from self-governing, market socialism to classical capitalist economy, from the political monism of socialism to the political pluralism of liberal democracy. This comprehensive transition has remained in the public opinion in the negative memory due to the war traumas, the violation of human rights, and the economic aspects of the transition, the so-called conversion and privatization of social and state property into the private hands of HDZ’s partners. Since then, the HDZ has gained a reputation as an extremely corrupt mafia-like party, and during the years of HDZ’s rule, a number of corruption scandals of HDZ members and high-ranking officials (such as Ministers and Prime Ministers) were exposed, and in 2021 even the HDZ received the Supreme Court’s conformation of final judgment for withdrawing of HRK 14.6 million (approximately EUR 2 million) from state institutions and state-owned companies to finance the party’s work.
The HDZ also has corrupted state and public institutions with its policies that it is almost impossible to get a job in the state and public service without a party membership card or through some other connections. Furthermore, the slowness of Croatian judiciary in administering justice is also notorious, which is why many people do not even seek justice in court, while the criminal actions of privileged individuals, especially those close to the HDZ, are spared from penalties and prison sentences. All these injustices provoke in ordinary people, in young people the most, which have yet to become economically independent, the desire to flee the country to a more fairly organised state where they will be able to realize their personal goals and build a decent life for themselves and their families.
EU accession and the exodus of Croatian labour force
If we examine the years of the largest migration movements of the domestic population, then this is the period from 2013 to 2019, where 2013 is the year when Croatia became a member of the European Union on July 1.
Source: Croatian Bureau of Statistics. Migration of population of Republic of Croatia, 2020. Zagreb, 23 July 2021.
Also, 2013 is the year when Croatia is already in the fifth year of the economic crisis caused by the world economic crisis of 2008 and the Euro-crisis of 2011. That period before Croatia’s entry into Europe is a very important alibi for HDZ, because in those years the rival SDP and then the economic recession of the Croatian economy were in force. In the Croatian economy, the standard of living for the domestic labour force was structurally lower, and with EU membership, the labour force gained unprecedented freedom of mobility in the European market. Very low average wages and high basic living costs have prompted many low-skilled and skilled workers, and to some extent even the highly educated, to seek their fortune in the more prosperous members of the European Union, primarily Germany and Ireland, where their work is much more valued[4]. The exodus of the labour force reflected on the crisis of high unemployment, especially among young people, so that suddenly the unemployment dropped drastically, without employment in the same share increasing, which inevitably speaks in favour of the exodus.
Conclusion: a general demographic collapse
As a large proportion of young people have left, society has grown rapidly, and the current trend of declining fertility rates (1.47 in 2019) is also contributing to ageing of society. The 2021 census showed that Croatia is a society that is disappearing with age, the absence of positive natural growth and the emigration of labour.
Population by age and sex (male/female), 2021 Census first result.
Source: Croatian Bureau of Statistics.
All the existing negative demographic trends detected by the Census 2021 indicate that Croatia will soon be a country with a very old population and whose future will be extremely dependent on large imports of permanent and seasonal labour from abroad.
[1] Census 2021: Croatia’s population shrank 9.25 pct since 2011 – N1 (n1info.com)
[2] I refer to the common opinion among opposition parties. However, those leaning towards the ideological right tend to emphasise that Croatia is becoming extinct, pursuing political messages to families (especially women) to produce more children (in particular Croats for purpose of conserving Croatian national identity), and government to limit women’ reproductive right to abortion. On the other side, for the failures in tackling the demographic crisis, the left and more politically liberal parties underline structural economic inequalities, poor working conditions and inadequate social policies for working class families.
[3] HDZ – Hrvatska demokratska zajednica (eng. Croatian democratic union).
[4] Slobodna Dalmacija – Iselilo je 370.000 ljudi: Njemačka ispumpava radnu snagu iz Hrvatske, uzimaju najbolje ljude, a vraćaju penzionere. Postajemo starački dom Europe