Weekly Briefing, Vol. 24, No. 4 (HU), December 2019
Hungarian foreign policy in 2019
The Hungarian foreign policy has been centered on pragmatism over the course of 2019. As we pointed out in our earlier analyses, the leading principle of the Hungarian foreign policy is pragmatism, which means that the approach in the foreign policy is not linked to adherence to any ideological beliefs, or considerations, but it basically pursues the main economic and political interests of Hungary. The mainstream of European foreign policies underlines the significance of Western values (such as democracy, human rights, etc.). When it comes to the practice of the so-called value-based foreign policies, we can often see the wide gap between theory and practice, which seems to be inevitable since economic and political interests override ideological concerns at the end of the day. In contrast to that, the pragmatic approach of the Hungarian foreign policy not only allows for an efficient enforcement of the national interests, but that policy is much more predictable and calculable for the partners, which makes Hungary a reliable and stable partner. This briefing focuses on the analyses of the main foreign policy relations of Hungary: China, the European Union, Russia, the United States.
- China relations
The Hungarian foreign policy has concentrated on mutual economic benefits, the main results were born in the last months of the year, mainly related to the Chinese Import-Export Expo in November, and the visits of the Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade and the Minister of Technology and Innovation, see the list of concrete results:
- A cooperation agreement about innovation and technology transfer with Tsinghua University in Beijing,
- An office and dual training center of the Chinese Ctrip at Corvinus University.
- Cooperation between Záhony Logistics and Industrial Zone Consortium and the Central European Trade and Logistics Zone
- Contract about financing the Budapest-Belgrade railway
- Shanghai Fudan University in Budapest
- China Eastern Airlines 2 new lines from China (Xian, Chengdu) to Budapest,
Based on this list and the achievements of the former years, we can easily distinguish main areas of the cooperation which the Hungarian government seems to have keen interest in. Enhancing connectivity has been one of the main achievements between the two countries; two years ago there were no direct lines between Hungary and China, now China Eastern Airlines operates a flight between Budapest and Shanghai, and as we could see above two lines will be added. Without direct lines it would be difficult to increase tourism, especially Hungary would benefit from transforming Budapest into a European entry point for Chinese tourists. The other key area seems to be investments, agreements facilitating more trade between the two countries. And at the end, educational cooperation could be one of the areas that could significantly contribute to a better understanding of the two cultures.
By and large, the development of the bilateral relations has been positive and the financial agreement in the case of the Budapest and Belgrade railway seems to be very close, however, the share of Chinese FDI is still low, major breakthroughs could not be achieved. In our understanding this element of bilateral ties ought to be strengthened since the development in other areas (political connections) has been positive and rapid.
- US relations
The peak of the development in the bilateral relations was the US State Secretary’s visit in Hungary. The main topics of the negotiations were:
- the renewal of the defense agreement, which was adapted by the Hungarian Parliament since then;
- the question of Ukraine’s NATO membership, which is blocked by Hungary, unless Ukraine amends its recent educational law restricting the use of Hungarian and other minority languages in education. The Hungarian negotiating partner made it clear that the country is not willing to scarify its national interests for Ukraine’s European integration.
- The third topic was the regional energy supply. Hungarian interests include the diversification of energy supplies, however, since then there seems to be no new achievements in this area. Besides the LNG terminal in Croatia, the Hungarian proposal is to unite the two countries’ gas market to increase the maneuvering room when negotiating about prices with third partners. According to the Hungarian approach, this would solve or at least mitigate the problem of high LNG prices.
Over the course of the year, slight improvements took place in the bilateral relations, and this improvement could be based on similar approach in the migration debate or in the efforts to strengthen self-defense capabilities of the NATO countries, and along with that increase military spending. At the same time, we should add that the American President’s approach to foreign policy questions and their management is unconventional, which makes the US an unpredictable partner.
- Russian relations
Hungarian and Russian relations are relatively good, moreover, we should add one of the best ones, you could achieve in the current geopolitical environment given the EU and US sanctions against Russia and the remaining tensions around East Ukraine and Crimea. New areas of cooperation were opened at the end of the year; besides the cooperation in the Paks nuclear plant and the establishment of a new subsidiary of the International Bank for Economic Co-operation, the partners agreed on starting Hungarian and Russian space research projects and opening a subsidiary of the Hungarian Export Promotion Agency in Moscow. As for the joint space research projects, the Hungarian partner added, that the cost of sending an astronaut into the space by 2024-2025 will be offset by the Hungarian added value in the research projects.
As we could see, several projects are in the pipeline and Hungary put all efforts to maintain and deepen its political and economic relations with Russia. The further improvement of trade relations would be of great relevance, since the trade volume was 6.4 billion USD in 2018 while it was around 10 billion USD before imposing sanctions on Russia in 2015. Despite the 17 percent increase in 2018 the trade volume is still low, that is probably the main reason why the Russian representation of Hungarian Export Promotion Agency in Moscow was significant.
- The EU policy of Hungary
Besides the European Parliamentary Elections, where the ruling Hungarian party increased its representation compared to the period between 2015 and 2019, the main debate evolved around the adaptation of the Sargentini report and the ensuing launch of the Article 7 procedure against Hungary. The first hearing in the General Affairs Council took place on 16 September 2019, and the second hearing on 10 December. Until now no significant results were born, however the procedure will continue the next year too, Croatia and later Germany are going to be the countries setting the agenda of the Council, therefore the speed of the procedure will very much depend on their intentions. At this point it is easy to see that the German point of view on the Hungarian case is in order to make recommendations to Hungary, a four fifth majority would be required in the Council. Even after a decision condemning Hungary, which is in our understanding unlikely, the procedure goes through many steps towards applying sanctions. Similarly, the question of membership of Fidesz in the European People’s Party is not solved and the party is still suspended from the block, however, it seems to be very likely that the Hungarian party will be expelled from the block, given the latest comments and interview given by the new the new president of the party, Donald Tusk.
The main achievement of the years has been the appointment of the new Hungarian commissioner to the policy area of Neighborhood and Enlargement. Though the Commissioner based on existing EU rules cannot represent the interests of the sending, it is obvious that speeding up the enlargement in the Balkans is one of the key interests of the Hungarian foreign and trade policy. Besides the obvious economic benefits Hungary could reap from the membership of West Balkan countries, the countries could ease the migration pressure on Hungary, and they could be allies in the debate about the future of the EU. Since it became clear that the United Kingdom will sooner or later leave the EU, it was clear that Hungary needs allies in this debate. Germany and especially France intend to make steps in the integration process which would lead to cut back sovereignty of the member states in new areas while the Hungarian vision about the future of the European Union is based on the cooperation of nation states, than the concept of an ‘every closer European Union.
- Summary
As we could see in the briefing, Hungary’s foreign policy can be featured as a balancing strategy among the major political and economic powers and finding a position where the economic and political benefits are plenty to reap. This balancing strategy is one of the ‘oldest’ ones in human history and it can easily be chosen and used when times are peaceful and major forces don’t force the balancing, usually smaller countries to choose camp and side with one of powers; the remaining question for the years to come how long this strategy will be available for Hungary.